ATP Acapulco Round 2 – Viktor Troicki vs Santiago Giraldo
Viktor Troicki has been recommended in recent previews and I’m favouring the Serb again tonight in his second round match on the hard courts of Acapulco.
His opponent this evening is Santiago Giraldo, who has had a mediocre start to 2015, winning five of his ten matches. Indeed, three of those wins were on Giraldo’s favoured clay in Sao Paulo, where he reached the semi-finals.
Subsequently, Giraldo retired when 6-3 3-0 down to Juan Monaco last week and may not be entirely fit for this clash. His first round win over Austin Krajicek should be considered routine over a very mediocre Challenger-level opponent.
Troicki’s season, on the other hand, has gone reasonably well, boosting his (false) ranking from 101 at the start of the campaign to a current 43, after claiming the Sydney 250 event (also on hard court). He also had a creditable third round display at Australian Open, followed by a quarter-final indoors in Zagreb.
The stats make a very strong case for Troicki. He boasts 12 wins from 16 outings on hard court since his return to Tour following a ban, whilst Giraldo’s 8-11 12 month surface record bears no comparison.
Furthermore, the Columbian has much worse hold/break stats than Troicki, holding a mere 74.0% compared to Troicki’s 86.2%, and breaking opponents 21.7% compared to Troicki’s 26.5%.
These stats generated a model price of 1.30 on Troicki, indicating that the 1.53 available currently in the markets is strong value.
Adding further weight to our cause is Troicki’s magnificent 18-4 record when starting as favourite in the last 12 months, and in completed matches on hard court when favourite he won by at least four games in 11 of his 15 wins.
Giraldo also has a horrific 9-35 record when underdog on hard court and is 1-8 in the last 12 months when fitting this criteria – ironically beating Troicki in the Shenzhen quarter-final in September. However, Troicki had only been back on Tour for two months at that point, and is much improved from that point. It’s difficult to give much weight to that defeat.
Given Troicki’s historical tendencies, I like taking the -3.5 games about him tonight at 1.97.
Recommendation: Back Viktor Troicki -3.5 games at 1.97.
Prices correct at time of wrirting.
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