ATP Delray Beach Second Round – Denis Kudla vs Adrian Mannarino
Friday’s recommendation of Dominika Cibulkova on the game handicap was unfortunately scuppered when the Slovakian turned her ankle after twice being a break ahead in the first set.
Today’s we hope for some better fortune and our travels take us to Delray Beach for the ATP 250 event which got underway on Monday, and I like taking on the local hope in the opener.
Denis Kudla has had issues transferring solid Challenger Tour form to the ATP circuit and takes on the steadily improving Adrian Mannarino today.
The Frenchman is now ranked at 41 in the world, almost at his career best (36) which he achieved last month, after a superb last six months, which saw him claim Challenger titles in Segovia, Istanbul, Knoxville and Champaign, and was runner-up in Auckland in the first week of the ATP season.
A comparison of the two players’ 12 month hard court Challenger record makes interesting reading, with Kudla’s 15-6 record eclipsed by Mannarino’s 21 success from 23 outings. Furthermore, the hold/break stats are damning – Mannarino has held 85.9% to Kudla’s 73.6%, and broke a superb 41.7% to Kudla’s 32.2%.
Whilst the difference wasn’t as pronounced on the ATP Tour, Mannarino’s 14-15 record in the last 18 months on hard court is much better than Kudla’s 2-5, and Mannarino held 0.2% more and broke 6.7% more in these matches.
These statistics led me to a model price of 1.47 today, with Mannarino currently representing value, available around the 1.65-1.70 mark.
Whilst Mannarino’s record as slight favourite isn’t great, 11 of his 13 price-range wins since January 2013 came via at least 2 games, and 8 via at least 3 games. However, Kudla’s record as a slight underdog is far from stellar either, winning just five of 16 clashes priced between 2.00 and 2.99 since January 2014.
With there being little discernible difference in the -2 game and -2.5 game prices (1.87 and 1.99), I like taking the slightly smaller -2 game price at 1.87 for this match.
Handicap Recommendation: Back Adrian Mannarino -2 games at 1.87.
Price correct at time of writing.
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