WTA Monterrey – Round 2 – Ana Ivanovic vs Pauline Parmentier
Tennis is very low-profile this week with two WTA International events being played, as the men take a back seat due to the Davis Cup, starting Friday.
Tonight’s action is from Monterrey and there are four second round matches to be played, and the match prices look reasonably correct for the entire quartet.
Having said that, there are some angles that we can look at on the handicap markets, and the clash between Ana Ivanovic and Pauline Parmentier is a good example of this. Frequently, market makers fail to take into account a player tendency and this match illustrates this superbly.
Ivanovic has a truly incredible record for winning matches in straight sets when her starting price is below 1.20, claiming 22 of her last 25 matches in this price range by a 2-0 scoreline (since January 2014).
She has also won by at least 6 games on 20 of these 25 occasions, and by 7 games or more in 16/25 matches.
This illustrates value on the set and game handicap markets on the Serb, with the correct 2-0 scoreline being priced at 1.28 and Ivanovic -6 games available at 1.60. The -6.5 game handicap is 1.88.
Looking at Ivanovic’s historical data, the implied odds of her winning in straight sets is 1.14, by 6 games at 1.25, and via 7 games or more (-6.5 games) is 1.56.
Clearly the market has underestimated the chances of Ivanovic winning by a comfortable margin with the biggest value either on the -6 games at 1.60 or on the -6.5 game handicap line at 1.88.
Given Ivanovic’s historical tendency to win against poor opponents I like taking the more aggressive -6.5 game line at the bigger price, and this is today’s recommendation.
Recommendation: Ana Ivanovic -6.5 games at 1.88
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