WTA Miami – Second Round – Casey Dellacqua vs Belinda Bencic
Tennis action centres on Miami this week and next, with the Masters (ATP) and Premier Mandatory (WTA) tournaments moving into the second round phase.
One clash which has caught my eye is the match between the solid Australian, Casey Dellacqua, and young prospect Belinda Bencic.
The current rank of both players is similar, at 35 and 37 respectively, but Bencic – who has just turned 18 years of age – starts as a strong 1.39 favourite for this.
Young players tend to have high peaks and low troughs whilst they gain consistency on the main tour, but injuries notwithstanding, Bencic will be much higher ranked than Dellacqua in a year or two’s time.
However, we are dealing with the present time today and I feel that the young Swiss player is hugely over-rated for this clash, with the hold/break stats indicating there is very little to choose between either player in the last 12 months on hard court.
In this time period on today’s surface, Bencic has held 61.6% and broken 35.6% of the time, whilst Dellacqua has held 65.4% and broken 35.1% – a combined 3.3% advantage to the Australian.
Furthermore, in 2015, Dellacqua has held 5.7% more and broken 0.3% more, so I feel that there is significant over-hype on Bencic currently following a breakthrough win over Caroline Wozniacki last week at Indian Wells.
Dellacqua has lost her last 5 matches when underdog but has taken a set in each, against high level players such as Jelena Jankovic, Lucie Safarova, Madison Keys, Alize Cornet and Angelique Kerber – all ranked higher than Bencic.
Taking a set at least seems well within the capabilities of Dellacqua and the price of 1.88 on her to do so represents strong value.
Recommendation: Back Casey Dellacqua +1.5 sets at 1.88.
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