Swansea v Liverpool – Liberty Stadium at 12:00 live on BT Sport 1
Swansea hosting Liverpool on Sunday does not look like being a classic Premier League encounter, firstly Francesco Guidolin’s team are apparently safe from relegation on 40 points and based on their past two performances, the players look like they are wearing their flip flops on the pitch!
Secondly, Jurgen Klopp’s team have just had a tough Europa League Semi Final match in Spain against Villarreal on Thursday night. The German is highly likely to rest numerous starting players from that match will be rested this weekend, in preparation for the second leg of their Semi Final.
So, with that in mind we could be in for a fractured affair with neither side exhibiting their usual passing, pressing and energy. But, there is still profit to be made so where is the value in this one?
As mentioned Swansea have been awful in their last two games, losing 3-0 and then 4-0, but both of these results came on the road and at home before those defeats they had been in solid form.
Their recent record at the Liberty of late reads, P6 W4 D1 L1 and they kept four clean sheets in each of those victories, plus all six of those matches ended with less than three goals.
However, at home against teams like Liverpool, the Swans have a poor record of P4 W1 D1 L2 and all four of those matches ended with Under 2.5 Goals.
Liverpool have been in great form of late with just one loss in their last ten league games and their recent away record of P6 W4 D0 L2 is quite impressive as well. However, these games have been packed with goals as five of the six all went Over 2.5 Goals.
In away games against sides like Swansea, Liverpool have had mixed results with a record of P4 W2 D 1 L1 and again, all but one match saw three or more goals.
With those contrasting stats on the Asian Handicap Total Goals market, I will be taking a position on the main Asian Handicap market and as usual I will be backing based on value and form.
My model shows that the Reds are excellent value on the -0.25 Asian line and even taking into account the likely changes to their team and the travel back from Spain. I think they have enough quality to get a result on the road this weekend.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Liverpool -0.25 at 2.05
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