Stuttgart v Bayer Leverkusen – Mercedes-Benz Arena at 14:30 GMT +1
Centre-back Ozan Kabak was the unlikely hero as Stuttgart rescued a valuable share of the points with a 1-1 draw against relegation rivals Nuremberg last weekend. Having fallen behind late in the first-half, VFB courageously fought back to ensure a four-point cushion remains between the two teams.
Since switching to a five-man defence, the Swabians have picked up six points from a possible 18 (W1-D3-L2). Although far from imperious, the improvements with January signing Steven Zubar enjoying extra responsibility and attacking freedom has certainly paid dividends in the final-third.
On-loan Hoffenheim man has Zubar notched five goals in 11 games since joining Stuttgart, whilst VFB’s all-round offensive game has picked up too. Saturday afternoon’s hosts have only twice failed to score in 2019 Bundesliga action and the hosts haven’t failed to score in Swabia since the start of November.
Even so, Markus Weinzierl’s men remain ponderous and vulnerable at the back. Stuttgart own the second-most porous defence in the division having recorded just three clean sheets across the campaign, whilst the hosts have shipped at least two goals in 12 of their 15 fixtures against top-half teams.
VFB have tended to toil against the Bundesliga big guns too. A W1-D2-L12 effort against sides coming into the weekend in the top-half by an aggregate 7-39 is considerably concerning when you’re preparing to welcome a forward-thinking Leverkusen outfit to the Mercedes-Benz Arena on Saturday.
Goals on the agenda
However, rather than oppose Stuttgart, there’s better value to be had in supporting a goal-heavy game. Over 2.75 Goals is trading at 1.70 and looks well worth getting involved with considering the two teams have beaten the line in 21/28 (75%) of their collective home/away league encounter this season.
In fact, the pair have delivered Over 3.5 Goals in 12/28 (43%) of those tussles, and even beaten the Over 4.5 Goals barrier on seven (25%) occasions, highlighting the potential for a high-scoring showdown. Meanwhile, 19 (68%) of those matches also produced Both Teams To Score profit.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.75 goals at 1.700
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