ATP Vienna – Quarter-Final – Ivo Karlovic v Karen Khachanov
The evergreen Croatian veteran Ivo Karlovic, who turns 38 next year, has had yet another strong season on the ATP Tour and takes on the Russian prodigy, Karen Khachanov, who is young enough to be his son, at 20 years of age.
Whilst there is certainly a large age gap, there is much less discrepancy in terms of ability, and a close match is likely. Khachanov is a superb prospect who has done very well in his 21 matches on the ATP Tour this year, winning 13, and he is without doubt a player that we will hear plenty about in the coming years.
Karlovic is the favourite for the match, at around 1.67, with Khachanov being offered around the 2.40 mark. My model gave some value on the youngster, making him 2.20, but this wouldn’t be quite enough value for me to hit my tolerances for recommendations.
The Tournament So Far
Karlovic got past Steve Johnson as a slight favourite in the opening round, 7-6 6-3, before a miraculous comeback from a double break down in the final set to beat Damir Dzumhur 7-6 4-6 7-6 ensued in the second round. Incredibly, Karlovic achieved this despite only creating three break points in the entire match.
Khachanov’s progress has been a little more comfortable, defeating Andreas Seppi and Nikoloz Basilashvili as slight favourites (and with value on both occasions based on my model) in straight sets.
On hard or indoor hard in the last 12 months, Karlovic has held 92.6% and broken opponents 8.8%, with Khachanov’s data coming in at 82.8% and 19.5% respectively, against a slightly worse quality of opponent.
What is clear here is that both players are serve orientated, and this yields projected hold percentages, at what has been a venue with quick conditions historically, around the 96-97% marks. This, furthermore, generated a likelihood of there being no breaks in the opening set of 65.61%, which will be boosted by several percent for a tiebreak in the opening set, given that there is a very small chance of there being a break lead recovered.
It is difficult to apply historical trends based on price range given that the bet I am looking at today is very projected hold orientated. However this year, when a slight 1.50-1.99 favourite on hard/indoor hard, Karlovic has had a tiebreak in the first set in six of 11 matches, and also in both matches at this venue this week.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: First Set tiebreak/over 12.5 games first set at 2.10
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