ATP Beijing – Quarter Final – Alexander Zverev vs David Ferrer
Tomorrow morning in Beijing, at around 5:30 am UK time, sees one of the biggest prospects in Tennis, Alexander Zverev, take on the Spanish veteran, David Ferrer – a match that forms the basis of my latest Tennis Handicap Betting preview.
Whilst in recent previews we’ve looked to keep players with high potential onside, here is a clear example of an over-reaction for a young player who has achieved some strong results recently. However, whilst Ferrer isn’t quite at his peak anymore, Zverev still has plenty to prove, statistically, on hard court.
Zverev opened at around 1.80, and has quickly shortened to around 1.75. This price, and market movement, is against my model, which priced the German as a slight underdog, at 2.06, with Ferrer priced at 1.94.
The Tournament So Far
Both players have impressed this week, with Zverev coming back from a set down to defeat fellow young gun Dominic Thiem, and he eased past Jack Sock in impressive fashion on Wednesday.
Ferrer is yet to drop a set in the event, getting past Pablo Cuevas and Fabio Fognini in straight sets, and these wins – against opponents who are strong returners – were rubber-stamped by the fact that he is yet to even face a break point on serve this week.
Statistics indicate this is likely to be quite a swingy, return orientated match. In the last six months on hard court, Ferrer has held serve 79.7% – about average – and broken opponents 27.0%, which is above average. This combines to 106.7%, which puts him a bit down on his levels from previous years, but still a solid top 20 hard court player. Zverev’s stats are 79.4% holds and 21.3% breaks (100.7%), which he has improved slightly in the last six months to 81.6% and 23.0% (104.6%).
However, even with the improvement in the last six months factored in, it’s tough to make a statistical case for Zverev being favourite here.
In best of three set matches where Ferrer was a slight underdog, priced between 2.00 and 3.00, he actually has a positive career record, running at around 8% ROI based on Pinnacle Sports closing prices.
In all his wins in this price range, he’s won by at least a one game margin, and all but one win came via at least a two game winning margin.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation
With the value on Ferrer, ideally we’d be able to back him giving up between 0.5 and 2 games, but markets for these lines, as he is pre-match underdog, aren’t really available with major bookmakers.
Considering this, I am happy just to stick with backing Ferrer for the outright match win at 2.23.
Back David Ferrer at 2.23
Prices correct at time of writing.
Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage, winners welcome!