WTA Quebec City – Evgeniya Rodina vs Samantha Crawford
WTA action continues tonight and followers of this column should be in good heart again with Saisai Zheng’s facile straight-set win over Irina Falconi covering the -2.5 games at 2.76 overnight in Tokyo.
We move to the fast indoor carpet courts of Quebec City tonight, where third on court (starting around 7pm UK time) Evgeniya Rodina takes on American qualifier Samantha Crawford.
This is a pretty interesting match-up with Crawford’s data illustrating that she is a very mediocre player currently. At 20 years old, she has time to improve, but as it stands, main tour WTA stats of 55.6% service holds and 31.1% opponent breaks isn’t going to get her very far.
I also took a detailed look at her qualifier stats, downwardly adjusting them for opponent quality. When this was done, her stats were a very poor 79.6% combined hold/break stats on hard and indoor hard courts.
Rodina’s surface stats are much better at 97.9% combined, and this difference contributed to a 1.29 model price on the Russian, making prices around 1.40 currently available some value.
Pleasingly, further confidence was added by Rodina’s magnificent record as a strong favourite. She has won 33 of 40 career matched priced between 1.20 and 1.49, returning almost 17% on Pinnacle Sports closing prices. In short, the market under-rates her in this type of match-up.
In addition to this, she’s covered -4 games in this price range on 10/15 occasions in the last 12 months, with 2 pushes and just three losses. Considering this line is offering a very generous 1.91, this has to be today’s recommendation.
Handicap Betting Recommendation: Back Evgeniya Rodina -4 games at 1.91
Prices correct at time of writing.
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