WTA Stanford – Second Round – Coco Vandeweghe vs Nicole Gibbs
Last week saw both our handicap betting recommendations yield excellent wins, and I’m looking for our third win in a row tonight, at the WTA Stanford event.
A rather congested calendar has occurred this week, with the Olympic games meaning that a week had to be freed up, and the Washington and Kitzbuhel events were shoehorned in along with ATP Umag, ATP Gstaad and WTA Stanford.
This has led to a week where there is virtually 24 hour tennis, and last on court tonight in Stanford at around 3am UK time sees Coco Vandeweghe take on Nicole Gibbs.
Vandeweghe, no doubt buoyed from a superb grass court season where she won 11 of 13 matches, starts as a heavy 1.33 favourite for the match, but I don’t make that correct by any means, and I feel that the market has been over-influenced by Vandeweghe’s grass court success which really should have little bearing on a match on hard court.
Not only this, but my data shows Stanford to be around average speed for conditions, and the powerful Vandeweghe would be more likely to enjoy the quick conditions in this week’s other WTA event in Washington instead. This price would still be very short on Vandeweghe in Washington, but it would be more realistic than at Stanford. I also want to make the point that Gibbs went to University in Stanford so is going to be very comfortable indeed at this venue.
However, Gibbs has had a poor run of form with just three wins from ten matches since the first US hard court season ended in March, but it’s worth noting that she was only pre-match favourite in five of those matches, and she’s never had much track record away from her favourited hard courts.
On hard court this year, Vandeweghe has an 8-7 record and opponent Gibbs actually boasts a better 10-5 record. In these matches, Vandeweghe has a combined hold/break percentage of 100.9%, whilst Gibbs is more impressive at 109.2%.
Considering everything stated above, it is clear that the oddsmakers have based their prices solely on recent form on different surfaces as opposed to general ability levels on the relevant surface today.
Having said this, finding a viable handicap bet for this match isn’t particularly easy. Vandeweghe has an excellent record for winning comfortably when priced as a heavy favourite, although in those historical matches it’s fair to say that her opponents do not feature opponents with statistics as strong as Gibbs does on hard court.
On this basis, I quite like a small stake on Gibbs to win the match outright at 3.75. Traders may also wish to consider laying Vandeweghe pre-match, with a view to trading out at a higher price in-play.
Tennis Betting Recommendation: Back Nicole Gibbs at 3.75
Prices correct at the time of writing.
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