September 15, 2016

WTA Quebec Tennis Handicap Betting Preview – Thursday 15th September by @Tennisratings

WTA Quebec City – Second Round – Oceane Dodin vs Sachia Vickery

Last Friday’s recommendation of Stan Wawrinka on the game handicap at 3.15 was a superb victory. With the ATP out of action this week, due to the Davis Cup, we move to the WTA tour for my latest Eastbridge Sports Betting Broker Tennis handicap betting preview.

At WTA Quebec, the field quality is low and many players on display this week are usually at the lower ITF level.  It’s fair to put young prospects Oceane Dodin and Sachia Vickery in this bracket with Dodin having played 19 career WTA matches, and Vickery, 32.

However, this match has yielded a solid handicap betting opportunity, with the slightly more experienced Vickery under-rated by the market.

The Prices

Dodin is currently favourite around the 1.50 mark for this match, played on Indoor Hard/Carpet, and Vickery is available just shy of 3.00.

My model rated the two players much closer, making Dodin the 1.80 favourite, and Vickery at 2.25.

Dodin is probably over-rated by the market due to hype and the fact that she has done well recently in clay ITF events.  However, in these, she hasn’t beaten many players of note – in her win in Barcelona, she was favourite in every match and her highest ranked opponent was Katarzyna Piter (285).  In Koksijde, Belgium, only her final opponent, Richel Hogenkamp, was ranked higher than 293.  Hogenkamp beat her in three sets.

The Tournament So Far

Further pushing Dodin’s cause in the market was her three-set comeback triumph over Naomi Broady as a slight underdog in the first round, in quick conditions which should have suited the Brit.  Vickery also needed three sets, as a slight favourite, all on tiebreaks, to get past Patricia Maria Tig.

Hold/Break Stats

Both players have low levels of experience in main draw indoor hard/carpet events, so I had to use ratios to adjust qualifier data to establish hold/break stats with a decent sample size.  These indicated that the match is likely to be quite return orientated, with Dodin expected to hold 58% compared to Vickery’s 54%.

This made Dodin the slight favourite for the match, but not to the extent that the market has.

Historical Trends

In 2016, when priced 1.30-1.70, Dodin is 17-8, which is around expectation for the price range.  However, she is 11-11-3 for covering -4 games, and won in straight sets 13/25 times.

In the same time period, when priced 2.50-3.50, Vickery is 4-5 for covering -4 games but took sets in 6 of the 9 matches.

If we try and work out implied odds purely just combining the two players historical trends, Vickery +1.5 sets would work out to be 1.74.  However, this line is currently 1.78.

Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation

Considering there is a few ticks value based on the historical odds, and a lot more value based on my pre-match model, backing Vickery +1.5 sets looks the correct proposition today.

Sachia Vickery +1.5 sets at 1.78

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @Tennisratings.

Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage, now UK licensed.

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