WTA Charleston – Quarter Final – Irina Begu vs Darya Kasatkina
With the ATP Tour having a week off, due to the Davis Cup, our attention turns to the WTA Tour this week, and there is a solid handicap betting opportunity in the higher profile Premier level event in Charleston.
Charleston sees the first clay event on the WTA Tour in 2017, and we are at the quarter-final stage.
Darya Kasatkina has been mentioned among astute observers as being a player of immense potential on clay, as well as being a future French Open winner, and the Russian – still only 19 years of age – has achieved some incredible results on the surface already, amassing superb hold/break stats.
Kasatkina is available just shy of 1.70 currently, and my model made this value, pricing her up at 1.54 to win this match against a solid opponent, who enjoys playing on the surface herself.
The Tournament So Far
Both players have played three matches to get to this quarter-final stage.
Begu destroyed Cagla Buyukakcay with a double bagel in the opening round, before requiring a final-set tiebreak to get past Kristina Kucova in the second. Her third-round win over Sam Stosur, as a slight underdog, was more impressive.
After easing to a 6-1 6-2 win over Danka Kovinic in the first round, Kasatkina has played two much higher level opponents in Olympic champion Monica Puig, and Daria Gavrilova. Both matches were won dominantly in a deciding set, following Kasatkina taking the first set – certainly a positive demonstration of her fitness levels this week.
In the last 12 months on clay, Begu has an advantage on serve, holding 71.2% of the time, with Kasatkina doing so 67.8%.
However, the Russian youngster has immensely superior return data, breaking opponents an incredible 50.6% of the time, compared to the Romanian’s 36.4%.
This large discrepancy on return generated my model price today.
Kasatkina is an incredible 20-3 in her career on clay courts, when priced as a narrow favourite between 1.50 and 2.00, and these victories have tended to feature many dominant set victories, which give her a great chance of covering the game handicap here.
All but three of her 16 wins with this filter since January 2015 have come by at least a three game margin, and taking the 1.92 about her doing so again today looks to be a very strong pre-match position.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Back Darya Kasatkina -2.5 games at 1.92
Prices correct at time of writing.
Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage, winners welcome!