Football betting expert @gscurftrader looks for the value on the Asian total goals market in the West Ham v Watford match.
Observing the current perception on the match odds market, data can be extracted to aid the +2.5 goals market. West Ham are perceived to possess a probability of 52.08%, which produces slightly inflated odds in comparison to the data extracted from performances generated from teams priced similarly.
Investigating the data produced from home team’s within the probability of between 59.88% and 50.00% produces a performance rating for +2.5 goals of 50.65%. Therefore, with odds of 2.10 available an early indication that value can be obtained is evident.
Proceeding to extract data based upon the market’s perception, the current probability of Watford taking maximum points is 21.27%. In addition, through observing the results produced from away teams within the probability range, the data indicates that +2.5 goals has occurred in 55.68% of games with identical conditions.
Manufacturing an average from the two separate sources of data, would indicate a probability of +2.5 goals occurring as 53.16% or odds of 1.88. However, additional sources of data can aid the theory of discovering the true probability of +2.5 goals.
Therefore, by observing the market’s current perception of +2.5 goals, an additional source of data can be discovered. The market has attached a probability of 47.61% to +2.5 goals occurring. However, just by observing how previous games have performed with similar probabilities (51.20%), indicates the market clearly under values the true probability.
Looking through the previous five seasons of data for game week four of the Premier League, indicates a running probability of 46.00% or odds of 2.17. This is how +2.5 goals has performed in gameweek four in the previous five seasons;
- 2015/16: 50.00%
- 2014/15: 60.00%
- 2013/14: 30.00%
- 2012/13: 50.00%
- 2011/12: 40.00%
With ten scheduled games over the weekend and Monday evening, expectation for five of those games to produce +2.5 goals may well be obtained.
Through using the four sources of data to generate the true probability of +2.5 goals occurring, the probability generated is 50.88% or odds of 1.96 (which includes the performance rating produced by the Premier League). With 2.10 available the market’s current perception is clearly flawed.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 2.10
Prices correct at time of writing.
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