Watford v Man Utd – Vicarage Road at 12:45 live on BT Sport 1
Premier League action returns this weekend with Watford v Man Utd kicking things off on Saturday lunchtime. The Red Devils can go top, for at least a couple of hours should they win, but the value lies with the Hornets on the Asian Handicap betting market.
United hold a very strong record over Watford in the league and cup over the past 28 years, winning every one of their last 9 meetings. They haven’t faced a Watford side this strong over that period however and at 4.80 to win this fixture, I feel they have been underestimated.
With a record of W4, D4, L4 from their opening 12 BPL matches this year, they sit comfortably in mid-table, 8 points above the relegation zone.
Before the international break they suffered a 2-1 defeat way to Leicester, but prior to that they recorded back to back 2-0 wins over West Ham and Stoke. Troy Deeney is back amongst the goals, scoring twice in his last 3 league appearances, but it’s Odion Ighalo who is the danger man, scoring 7 of the Hornets 11 goals this season.
Their strongest area this term has been their defence, conceding just 4 times in their 6 matches at Vicarage Road, 3 of those coming against Arsenal. At the other end, they don’t score many either, just 3 on home turf this season, against West Ham and Swansea, winning both of those matches.
Man Utd are unbeaten in their last 7 in all competitions but that includes a shootout defeat to Boro (Capital One Cup), a 1-1 draw with CSKA (UCL) and 3 goalless draws.
The criticism of Louis Van Gaal’s tactics and the teams general performance, especially going forward has been well documented. It’s hard to argue with the criticism’s when Utd are the lowest scorers from the top 7 sides in the league but have to be praised for sitting just 2 points off leaders City when they haven’t been playing well.
A low scoring game is likely here. Taking out the defeat to Arsenal, the Hornets have conceded just 1 goal in 5 matches at home and that being a penalty. Utd are hit and miss on their travels, putting 3 past Everton and 3 past the Saints, but just 2 more goals in their other 4 fixtures on the road.
Under 2.5 goals is understandably priced at 1.70 but it still provides some value. Under 2 goals on the Asian Line is worth a punt at 2.26 as I do not see this match breaking the 2 goal barrier and could well end 0-0 or a single goal could nick it.
With their strong defence and home advantage, Watford can come away with a good point from tomorrow, showing further progress to their already good start to the campaign. As mentioned earlier, I believe they have been underestimated and look a great bet +0.5 on the Asian Handicap betting market.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Watford +0.5 at 2.03
Prices correct a time of writing.
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