Watford v Liverpool – Vicarage Road at 13:30 live on Sky Sports 1
Watford host Liverpool on Sunday looking to make it 4 wins from 4 in the Premier League. Their run of 3 wins on the bounce has moved them up to 7th in the table, a point and 2 places above their opponents.
Liverpool are winless in their last 3 outings in all competitions but go into the match as favourites at 2.00 and despite Watford’s great start to the season, it’s the visitors who are the value bet on the Asian Handicap betting market.
The Hornets have been a surprise this season, with 25 points after 16 games they are now just 3.2 for a top half finish. On current form that might look like a good bet, but when you break down where they have picked up their points, it’s hard to see them getting anything out of Sunday’s match.
Watford have seven wins this season, five of those coming against teams in the bottom six. When you look at their record against top half sides, from seven matches, their record reads Won 1, Drawn 1, Lost 5.
Their strength is certainly in their defence, conceding an average a goal a game, only 5 teams have shipped more goals. However, at the other end of the pitch, despite Ighalo and Deeney’s superb start to the season, scoring 15 goals between them, only Stoke, WBA, Swansea and Villa have scored fewer.
Watford’s strong rearguard does mean they don’t often lose by more than a single goal, just twice this season against City and Arsenal. They have 7 clean sheets so far this term which is joint highest, but that does mean when they do concede, they often concede twice, 7 times in 9 games.
68% of Watford’s points have been earned when keeping a clean sheet and I think they will need a clean sheet to get something on Sunday.
Liverpool are without a win in their last two league matches but can pick up a much needed 3 points, if they are to keep in touch with the top 4, if they score. They are currently 5 points behind Man United in 4th and will not want to slip further behind going into Christmas and New Year.
Good news for Liverpool fans is that they aren’t struggling to find the back of the net, scoring in 11 of their last 14 matches. From those 11 games when registering, they have won making the even money -0.5 on the Asian Handicap betting market an attractive option, especially with the return of Pilippe Coutinho last weekend.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Liverpool -0.5 at 2.00
Prices correct at time of writing.
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