Vojvodina v Dinamo Minsk – Karadorde Stadium at 19:00
Delving into the qualification stage of the Europa League, is not without its concerns. Taking into consideration the unknown fitness of most clubs there maybe some hesitation in becoming involved within the early stages of the competition.
However, with the Serbian Super Liga already underway those concerns may be nullified for Vojvodina.
The market’s current perception highlights possibilities, in which data extracted from historical results can aid. Additionally, with the market heavy towards Vojvodina the +2.5 goals generates a probability which is not in accordance with the markets perception.
For instance, using historical data from similarly priced teams as Vojvodina. This produces a probability of 51.23% of +2.5 goals occurring. In contrast, the market’s current perception indicates a probability of 45.45%. Early indications show the market have been delicate in the pricing of +2.5 goals.
Utilising data provided by teams priced parallel too Dinamo Minsk, generates a probability not compatible with the markets perception. Promoting a probability of 48.06% for +2.5 goals occurring.
Another source of valuable data which can be applied is historical data from previous results with similarly priced +2.5 goal markets. Through the observation of past performances similarly priced to the +2.5 market in this game, the probability of +2.5 goals occurring based upon the presented filter is 51.25%.
Therefore, by collecting the data presented via the three separate filters. This provides a secure foundation in which to base our perception of the +2.5 goals market.
Vojvodina currently possess an average of 2.25 goals scored per game in this seasons Europa League.
Comparatively, with the market seemingly heavy on Vojvodina I would expect that average to be upheld.
In comparison, Dinamo Minsk have averaged 1.50 goals per game in this year’s competition. Minsk have experienced the group stage of the Europa League in the previous two seasons, with a third consecutive year obtainable.
In conclusion, by manufacturing an average occurrence from the three presented probabilities. The market seems to undervalue the true probability of +2.5 goals occurring, in comparison to the markets perception of 45.45%. Through the observation of historical data the true probability of +2.5 goals occurring is 50.18%.
Therefore, with a solid foundation of data to base a recommendation upon. I am confident of long term profitability by recommending +2.5 goals in this game.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 2.20
Prices correct at time of writing.
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