November 26, 2016

Villarreal v Alaves Asian Total Goals Preview – Sunday 27th November by @gscurftrader

Villarreal v Alaves – El Madrigal at 11:00 live on Sky Sports 3

Villarreal have a short turn around, as they travelled to Zurich in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday evening. However, analysing the market’s perception there is plenty of love still evident for The Yellow Submarine. Observing the implied probability attached with Villarreal situates Fran Escribá and staff within the parameters of host teams possessing an implied probability of between 60.24% and 74.62%. As a result, extracting an xG rating from the parameters currently being analysed would present Villarreal with an xG of 1.97. Consequently, Villarreal have average 1.50 goals per game following a Thursday evening UEFA Europa League game. In addition, 50.00% of El Submarino Amarillo Sunday games following a Europa League game have resulted in +2.5 goals occurring. Following on, due to the market’s perception of Villarreal data can be extracted and relayed upon the +2.5 goals market. Therefore, by breaking down how previous games have concluded a probability of 59.78% can be attached to +2.5 goals occurring in this match-up. Subsequently, with the market currently offering 2.25 early signs of value are evident. Additional data to bolster the theory of +2.5 goals being undervalued by the market:vilala

In coordination, the market’s perception on Alaves is evident through the implied probability of 11.62% being offered. As a result situating El Glorioso within the parameters of travelling teams possessing an implied probability of 24.93% or less. Utilizing the data within the filter that Alaves are situated, suggests an xG of 0.92. In addition, Alaves have averaged 1.50 goals per game on their travels, against top four teams this season. Furthermore, 80.00% of El Glorioso’s away games this season have resulted in +2.5 goals occurring. Observing Deportivo Alaves opening schedule, it involved travelling to Barcelona, Valencia and Sevilla in consecutive away games. However, with that being said they have been far from disgraced; picking up three points in the Camp Nou and only being beaten by  88th and 90th goals against both Valencia and Sevilla. Deportivo have certainly demonstrated abilities to persevere with the very best in the Primera Division. Hence, with the market’s perception on Alaves evident. By analysing the data from previous games a probability of 55.00% can be attached with +2.5 goals occurring. Additional data to aid the theory of +2.5 goals occurring;vilala-2

In conclusion, by combining the individual sources of data an overall probability of 57.39% can be attached with +2.5 goals. As a result equating to odds of 1.74. Therefore, with the market currently offering 2.25 a significant amount of value has been established.

Asian Total Goals Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 2.25

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @gscurftrader.

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