October 23, 2019

UEFA Europa League Match Previews – 24th October Thursday

Trabzonspor v FC Krasnodar

This is a key game for the well supported Turkish side Trabzonspor. They conceded a late goal to Basel to end up drawing in Matchday 2 and that leaves them with just a single point from a possible six after defeat to Getafe on opening day. You feel the ‘Black Sea Storm’ have to capitalise on their home games, it’s an intimidating place at the Senol Gunes Stadium and their record at base is largely impressive.

Trabzonspor have won 15 of their last 21 competitive games when playing hosts, such home form should not go unnoticed and I think they’re overpriced as they welcome an injury ravaged Krasnodar side. The ‘Byki’ have won just one of their last 5 on the road and have been outgunned in their opening two UEL games, including a 5-0 hammering in Switzerland against Basel. They’re a very inconsistent outfit and have kept just 3 clean sheets in 19 in all competitions this season, it’s hard to back them to win at the moment.

What’s more Murad Musayev will be without Viktor Claeson, Remy Cabella, Yuri Gazinskiy and Andrey Sinitsyn. There’s also doubts over the fitness of Dmitri Skopintsev, Wanderson and Ivan Ignataev, it’s not the best of preparations. The current available crop have been performing poorly and I expect the hosts to take the game to them.

Daniel Sturridge is finding form and fitness after his switch to Turkey, he has undeniable quality and experience in this competition. Even if he doesn’t play, Crystal Palace misfit Aleksander Sorloth has settled in well and is supported by the likes of Jose Sosa and Anthony Nwakaeme. This side have scored two or more goals in each of their last four games including a pair of 4-1 victories over Gazientepspor and Besiktas, a measure of their attacking potential.

We can back the Turkish team off a +0 start on the asian handicap at 1.830and I’d be very surprised if we lost here. Backing this line means if the hosts win then so do we, however, if the game ends all square then we get our stake back. We’d only lose if Krasnodar claim an unlikely victory.

Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Trabzonspor +0.00 at 1.830

PSV Eindhoven LASK

PSV are a great team to watch at this moment in time. The Eindhoven based club have lost just once since the start of their domestic campaign and that was a 3-0 defeat at Utrecht this weekend, also they were down to 9 men in that game. But in the 16 games in all competitions since opening day vs FC Twente, PSV have a W12, D3, L1 record and they’ve been scoring plenty of goals in the process.

The ‘Boeren’ have scored 3 or more goals in 10 of those 16 games and even without key striker Luuk De Jong who departed to Sevilla in the summer, they’ve still managed to find the back of the net with impressive reliability. A lot of that burden has fallen on 20 year old Donyell Malen who is making a big name for himself with his goalscoring exploits. He’s bagged double figures in the Eredivisie already and three goals in the two UEL ties so far. His supporting cast isn’t bad either with Stephen Bergwijn and Bruma chipping in with a few goals and plenty of assists too.

Their attacking approach does leave them susceptible at the back though. The Dutch side have conceded in 6 of their last 7 and opponents LASK Linz have the forward propensity to add to that tally. The Austrian outfit comfortably finished as runners-up to Red Bull Salzburg in the Bundesliga last season and they’ve shown what a threat they can be on the continental scene. The success of Die Schwarz-Weisen saw manager Oliver Glasner get a move to Wolfsburg however their transition has been seamless since his departure.

They won 1-0 on opening day at home against Rosenborg and were fully deserving of the 3 points after out-shooting the Norweigans 16-6. They were very unfortunate to lose at Portuguese giants Sporting Lisbon on matchday 2, they managed a whopping 22 shots to Sporting’s 12 with 7 landing on target; LASK racked up 12 corners in that game too which highlights their attacking intent no matter who the opponents.

This game screams goals to me and it would be a shock if don’t profit from backing over 2.75 goals at 1.740. This bet would see us take a half stakes profit should exactly 3 goals be score and a full stakes win if 4 are scored. LASK are coming into this on the back of a 7-2 thrashing of Hartberg and 6 in a row have seen this bet profit when looking at their games. If you’d have backed this line in PSV games you’d have made money in 10 of their last 11 games. The stats say this is a sure fire thing and looks like the best bet of the coupon.

Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.75 goals at 1.740

Sevilla v Dudelange

In what is probably the biggest mismatch of Matchday 3 I’m willing to side with the minnows with a healthy handicap. The small landlocked country of Luxembourg is being represented by Dudelange who are flying the flag for the improving footballing nation. In the last 5 years or so we’ve seen the national team progress markedly and that has resonated with the domestic league too, they’re here on merit and have got three points to their name in group A after a dramatic 4-3 away at APOEL Nicosia in Cyprus.

Now I’m not saying they’re going to win this game, far from it, after all they’re visiting one of the favourites for the trophy and Europa League darlings Sevilla. However, I think the visitors are being slightly disrespected in the market and I’m more than happy to side with them on a +3.5 Asian Handicap at 1.850. It would take a win of 4 goals or more for the hosts in order for this bet to lose and that seems an artificially high threshold.

Although the Spanish giants are a much more high profile club, they rarely batter anyone. In fact, I wouldn’t be massively surprised if they conceded against this brave Dudelange side. Los Nervionenses have not won by four or more goals under the reign of Julien Lopetegui and 5 of their 7 wins this season have been by just the single goal. It’s not quite clicking for them going forward this season either. Wissam Ben Yedder and Pablo Sarabia both departed in the summer and that was a lot of their goals omitted, Monchi scoured the continent and brought in Manus Dabbur, Luuk De Jong and Javier Hernandez in from Austria, Holland and England respectively. The trio have combined to score a paltry 1 goal since the seasons inception and although Joan Jordan has slotted in superbly in midfield, the new front players have failed to ignite thus far.

Seldom will you see such a high line in a major European competition and Dudelange haven’t got here by fluke. They deserve respect and they’re not getting it. Let’s hope we can profit from it.

Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Dudelange +3.50 at 1.850

Preview by: TomLove_18

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