Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders – Estadio Azteca, Mexico at 01:30 live on Sky Sports 1
The NFL heads to Mexico City for Monday Night Football, as the Houston Texans (6-3) take on the Oakland Raiders (7-2) in a monumental AFC clash.
Analysing the market’s current perception, indicates an implied probability of 69.93% being attached with Oakland. Consequently, equating to Oakland’s highest implied probability of the season. The only week seemingly coming close, was back in game week two when Atlanta travelled to Oakland. The market attached an implied probability of 65.35% to the Raiders, subsequently leading to a 35-28 loss. Observing the implied probability attached with Oakland, situates Blackjack Del Rio and staff within the parameters of host teams possessing an implied probability of between 66.66% and 99.00%. Utilising the data from within this parameter suggests Oakland should possess a probability of 73.81%. Oakland are 2-2 at the Coliseum this season, with defeats from Atlanta and Kansas City. However with this game being played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico, both teams will have to face the element of altitude. Estadio Azteca is 7,200ft above sea level and has played a major hand in the Mexican national soccer team’s home success, with only one defeat to tarnish they record at Estadio Azteca.
The market has set the handicap line at -6.0, while attaching an implied probability of 51.28%. Analysing the data within the parameters that Oakland are situated indicates that host teams have covered the current spread in 45.24% of games this season. By comparing the data extracted from Oakland’s implied probability and the markets perception suggests that Oakland covering the spread possesses no value, at this stage.
In cooperation with the markets perception on Oakland, an implied probability of 31.25% has been attached with the Houston Texans. For this purpose, the Texans are therefore within the parameters of travelling teams possessing an implied probability of 33.22% or less. By analysing how previous teams have performed this season, indicates Houston should possess a probability somewhere in the region of 23.68%. The current perception attached with Houston, will be the third lowest of the season behind the games in Minnesota (Week 5) and Denver (Week 7). Maximising the efficiency of both sets of data, indicate an overall probability of 24.93% should be attached to the Houston Texans. As a result equating to odds of 4.01, implementing that there is no potential value to be obtained by having them on side.
Although in earlier analysis, the handicap line didn’t provide much in the element of value. By breaking down the data within the parameter in which Houston are situated, a brighter outlook can be relayed. Travelling teams attached with identical market conditions as Houston have only maintained the +6.0 spread in 36.84% of games this season. Therefore, by combining the two individual sources of data extracted from both sides an overall probability can be established. Hence, host teams have covered the -6.0 spread in 54.20% of games (odds of 1.84). As a result of the market offering 1.95, a significant amount of value can be obtained by having Oakland -6.0 on side.
Handicap Betting Recommendation: Oakland Raiders -6 at 1.95
Prices correct at time of writing.
By @gscurftrader.
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