WTA Quebec – Quarter Final – Julia Boserup vs CiCi Bellis
With the ATP Tour still out of action due to the Davis Cup starting today, again we look towards the WTA tour for my latest Eastbridge Sports Betting Broker Tennis handicap betting preview.
Several weeks ago at the US Open, I discussed the immense potential of CiCi Bellis, and whilst she failed to justify that in a resounding defeat to the eventual champion, Angelique Kerber, there can be little doubt that she is a player of immense potential.
This week, at still just 17 years of age, she has reached the quarter-finals in Quebec City, and my hold/break data makes her the best player remaining player in the field – she has a real chance of taking her first WTA title. Bellis has also announced this week that she has made the decision to turn down a University offer from Stanford to play full-time professional tennis. Statistically, this was probably the easiest decision of all time – she already has top 50 stats at such a young age.
Today she takes on the 25 year old journeywoman, Julia Boserup, who is yet to break the top 100, and this provides us with an excellent tennis handicap betting opportunity.
Bellis is currently available at around the 1.60 mark, and I must admit when I saw the prices, I felt this was almost too good to be true. It would appear that the market hasn’t quite got an accurate grasp of how good she is, and how good she will be.
My model, quite unsurprisingly, priced this much shorter.
The Tournament So Far
Bellis has been justifiable heavy favourite in both her matches, defeating another young prospect, Amandine Hesse, in straight sets, before being taken to a third set by Danielle Lao, after being a set and break up. Bellis’ issue in that match was an inability to take break points (she created 15).
Boserup is possibly a little over-rated here after two strong wins in straight sets over Amra Sadikovic and Evgeniya Rodina. Over-valuing easy wins does appear to be a general market trait, so this isn’t a huge surprise.
On hard/indoor hard court in the last 18 months, Bellis has won nine of 16 main draw matches, holding serve 64.4% and breaking opponents 40.7% (combined 105.1%). It does not need stressing how good this is for a 17 year old…
Boserup has played just three matches on hard/indoor hard in the same time period, but if we look at the last three years she is 3-3 with a combined 89.0% hold/break.
Using adjusted qualifier data for the last 12 months, my model gave Boserup an 83.7% combined figure. Clearly there is a reason why she has never broken the top 100, or played more main draw matches – she simply isn’t that good.
Career trends for a 17 year old are obviously not hugely reliable, or a large sample size. However, when priced 1.50-1.99, Bellis’ wins have all been by a minimum of three games, so it seems logical to look towards this for a handicap betting recommendation.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation
Considering the value on Bellis, and the fact all her wins have come by at least a three game margin in today’s price range, taking Bellis -3 games at 1.93 looks to be a much better proposition than backing her to win the match outright at 1.60.
CiCi Bellis -3 games at 1.93
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