Werder Bremen v Eintracht Frankfurt – Weserstadion at 14.30
There’ll be tears, that’s for sure.
Three does not go into two, meaning Saturday afternoon’s Bundesliga very own version of Judgement Day promises joy, sorrow, pain and regret.
The battle to avoid relegation hinges on one fixture from the Weserstadion as Werder Bremen prepare to take on Eintracht Frankfurt, whilst Stuttgart desperately require a victory at Wolfsburg elsewhere.
Never before in Bremen’s 52-year top-tier lives have the River Islanders’ survival prospects gone to the final day of the season. But Victor Skrypnyk’s men must pick up maximum points to climb outside of the bottom-three and avoid automatic demotion, or the relegation play-off.
Draw or lose, however, and things start to get complicated for Werder with a possible Stuttgart success coming into play.
The equation for Bremen’s guests, Eintracht Frankfurt, is much simpler. The Eagles, who sit one position and one place above their hosts, know a draw or win will see the side conclude their campaign outside of the drop zone. But lose and the relegation play-off fixtures await Niko Kovac’s men.
Despite being dominated by Dortmund last weekend, Eintracht pulled off a flattering 1-0 victory – their third on the spin without their talisman striker and skipper Alex Meier, nor defensive lynchpin Carlos Zambrano.
Kovac has instilled work ethic and organisation since arriving at Frankfurt and their new-found confidence under the Croatian head coach has certainly given the Eagles a major lifeline to grab hold of. But there’s still a vulnerability about the side when playing away.
Since the start of last season, Eintracht have lost 20/33 (61%) of their road trips, recording a rather rubbish four clean sheets. But having avoided defeat in four of their last five trips to Bremen, perhaps the side are ready to turn the formbook upside down.
Three of Eintracht’s last five goals have been scored from set-piece situations and it’s certainly an angle the visitors should look to exploit. Werder have shipped 20 goals from dead-ball situations – more than any Bundesliga side – whilst last weekend’s goalless game with Koln was the River Islanders’ first shutout of the campaign.
In Bremen’s defence, the hosts have triumphed in each of their last two Weserstadion encounters and with Claudio Pizarro back in the fold – the Peruvian has notched in each of his last five home fixtures – picking up a positive result is well within their realms.
Skrypnyk’s side’s only defeat at the Weserstadion in the Rückrunde came when Pizarro was injured and his goalscoring threat should stand Werder in good stead to at least earn a point with Eintracht missing Zambrano’s influence at the back.
It could well be a tense encounter but with neither side making major appeal in the Asian Handicap markets, it might pay to take a chance on the 1.90 on offer for Over 3 Goals on Saturday afternoon.
Looking at the pairs respective home/away results since the start of last season, we can see the two teams have accumulated 40/66 (61%) winning Over 2.5 Goals selections with 25/66 (38%) of those contests featuring at least four goals.
With such strong trends onside, backing a goal-heavy conclusion to the season looks the best form of attack.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Over 3 Goals at 1.90
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