Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears – Soldier Field at 00:30 live on Sky Sports 1
Analysing how the market is presenting this NFC North match-up. Indicates an implied probability of 34.72% on the 1-6 Chicago Bears. Certainly a perception which has been evident throughout the season thus far, with implied probabilities of; 34.96%, 62.11%, 29.85%, 40.65%, 33.33%, 55.24% and 25.00%. As a result of the market attaching an implied probability of 34.72% to Chicago. This situates them within the parameters of home teams possessing an implied probability between 33.33% and 39.84%. Therefore by extracting how previous games have concluded within this filter, further analysis can be produced. Observing the data, suggests previous host teams have obtained victory in 71.43% of games. Therefore equating to odds of 1.40, somewhat of leap between the market’s implied perception and what data suggests.
Utilizing the data within the parameters in which the Bears are situated, can be recycled upon the handicap market. In coordination with the data presented on the moneyline market, there appears to be a substantial amount of data in favour of Chicago maintaining the spread. The current spread being presented; +4.5/-4.5. The +4.5 spread has been maintained by home teams in 71.43% of games this season, identical to the probability posed by historical data on Chicago obtaining victory.
In addition to consuming data for both the moneyline and handicap markets, the same source can be used to extract data for the over/under market. The current line on offer; +40.5/-40.5. Consequently, the +40.5 has been covered in 57.14% of games this season equating to odd of 1.75. Therefore with 1.95 currently available, a lucrative entry point has presented itself.
In synchronisation with the implied probability attached with Chicago, the markets perception of Minnesota suggests an implied probability of 66.22%. A trend which has been evident throughout the season, as the Vikings have been attached with probabilities of; 57.80%, 47.16%, 26.66%, 64.93%, 72.46% and 58.47%. Hence, with Minnesota possessing an implied probability of 66.22%, this situates them within the parameters of travelling teams attached with implied probabilities between 52.63% and 66.22%. As a result only 40.00% of travelling teams this season have returned home with a victory.Therefore with the market currently offering 1.51 on the Vikings, this appears to be a position which isn’t beneficial long term.
Comparing the data extracted from Chicago’s current perception along with Minnesota’s, the handicap market is providing signs that value appears to be available with the Bears. As the struggles for travelling teams are evident, obviously the handicap lines have followed suit. Only 36.00% of travelling teams situated within the same parameters as the Vikings, have covered the -4.5 spread. Therefore by combining the two sources of data, this generates a running probability of 32.28% of Minnesota covering the -4.5 handicap.
Additionally, with the data already presented on the ‘total points’ market. Analysing the data extracted from Minnesota’s part, implements the theory that the market’s perception of +40.5 total points may be undervalued. Hence 56.00% of games this season from within the parameters in which the Viking’s are positioned, have resulted in +40.5 total points occurring. As a result by combining the two sources, this generates a probability of 56.57% or odds of 1.76. Therefore with 1.95 currently available, a substantial amount of value can be obtained.
In conclusion, with the struggles of travelling teams evident for all to observe. Chicago at 2.88 seem undervalued even though records suggest 1-6 v 5-1. For this reason, I can recommend Chicago at 2.88.
NFL Handicap Betting Recommendation: Chicago Bears at 2.88
Prices correct at time of writing.
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