Сентябрь 9, 2015

US Open Handicap Betting Preview – Thursday 9th September by @Tennisratings

Quarter Final – Richard Gasquet vs Roger Federer

As the US Open continues into the second week, the reduced number of matches means our handicap betting options get thinner on the ground. However, one match stands out tonight, with Richard Gasquet having major issues covering handicaps against elite level opponents.

Whilst the Frenchman has undoubtedly improved this year, with his all-surface service hold/break opponent combined percentage rising to 111.7% in 2015 compared to a much more mediocre 104.4% in 2014, opponent Roger Federer has also had a magnificent year so far, with his percentage for 2015 currently standing at 120.3% compared to 116.7% last year.

On his favoured hard courts in 2015, Federer’s stats are even more impressive, holding 94.1% and breaking 31.6% of the time (combined 125.7% – legendary stats) with Gasquet’s combined figure 110.7%.

This, as well as a very dominant 14-2 head to head record (including six straight sets match wins in a row) in the Swiss’ favour generated a model price of 1.05 on Federer, which indicates 5.14% implied value on the market prices of around 1.11.

The recent head to head record for this duo is totally in line with Gasquet’s feeble performances against elite opponents. Against Djokovic, Federer, Nadal and Murray combined since the start of 2012, Gasquet has won just one match from 19, and a mere six sets from 47 played (12.8%). Against Federer, he has lost 10/10 sets in this time period, by an average of 3.60 games per set.

Overall against these opponents, has lost an average of 2.45 games per set, making a line of -6.5 games on Federer quite attractive at 1.62. I also wouldn’t discourage an aggressive handicap bet of -9 games at 3.30 given the historical recent head to head record between the two players. Using the 12.8% set win percentage for Gasquet against elite would price Federer to win 3-0 at 1.51, making the straight sets win for the Swiss legend a bet at 1.75 as well.

Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Back Roger Federer -6.5 games at 1.62, and Federer 3-0 in sets at 1.75

Prices correct at the time of writing.

По @Tennisratings

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