Freiburg v Augsburg – Schwarzwald-Stadion AT 14:30 GMT +1
Freiburg’s long-term head coach Christian Streich said he was “not interested in the table” after seeing his side go third in the embryonic Bundesliga standings following a thrilling 3-0 victory at Hoffenheim last Sunday. The Black Forest boys have registered three victories from their opening four and impressed many.
Streich said, “It’s all about how far away we are from the bottom” at the end of the season although the veteran boss will have been delighted with his team’s efforts. Freiburg lost at home to Koln in dramatic fashion three weeks ago, conceding a last-gasp goal in a 2-1 defeat, but have been largely superb.
Mainz were battered 3-0 and Paderborn dispatched 3-1 in the club’s opening two games. Sure, the standard of opposition has been so-so, although the blossoming and burgeoning partnership between Luca Waldschmidt and Nils Petersen, plus the return of Jonathan Schmid, have made Streich’s side a major menace.
Back at the Schwarzwald-Stadion, Freiburg deserve maximum respect. Only the bottom three sides had a worse record on the road than the Black Forest club in 2018/19, while the year before only Koln earnt fewer than their dismal nine point output. Streich’s troops produce their best work in front of their home fans.
Goals an appealing play
There’s certainly appeal in supporting a home success when Augsburg come to town. The Fuggerstädter finished just four points clear of the relegation play-off spot last season and after eight successive Bundesliga seasons, the Bavarians look likely to be battling against the drop again in 2019/20.
No team last season had a weaker defence than Augsburg as they conceded 71 goals (2.10 per game). Martin Schmidt’s men are yet to keep their sheets clean this time around and have shipped 10 times across their opening four fixtures, giving up an alarming 1.30 Expected Goals (xG) from open play per-game.
However, the visitors are still generating opportunities in the attacking third and so there’s arguably better value to be found in the goals market. Freiburg are unlikely to silence the visitors, but with a home triumph probable, it makes sense to look towards Over 2.5 Goals, especially so at generous 1.75 odds on Saturday.
Since the start of last season the two teams have combined to produce profit in this market in 25/38 (66%) of their collective home/away Bundesliga matches. The same 25 (66%) figure saw both sides score with 16 (42%) showdowns even producing four or more goals as the pair combined for a paltry six shutouts.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.50 Goals at 1.750
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