Fiorentina v Qarabag FK – Stadio Artemio Franchi at 18:00
After observing the markets for the next seven days, two games provided standout prices which seem inflated in comparison to what historical data implements. The first game, is the game in which I have decided to further query and discover the true probability of +2.5 goals occurring. The second game is scheduled for Friday evening between RB Leipzig and Augsburg, in which further data will be supplied if needed.
The implied probability currently attached to Fiorentina, is 64.93%, which generates a significant supremacy rating. As a result of this, support should be evident in the -1 handicap market and the +2.5 goals market. However, the market’s current perception on +2.5 goals is that it only possesses a probability of 46.95% or odds of 2.13. Consequently, if you observe the performances that have been produced from home teams with implied probabilities of between 60.24% and 74.62%, this clearly indicates the implied probability for the occurrence of +2.5 goals is flawed.
Perception is dangerous, especially false perception in this case. The probability extracted from the implied probability currently attached to Fiorentina, is 59.39% or odds of 1.68, which generates a significant difference in comparison to what is currently on offer. Collecting data from numerous different sources can produce a solid and a true probability in which to work from, as long as those sources of data are sound and relevant.
In contrast, to Fiorentina, the market’s current perception and implied probability on Qarabag is 13.51%. Although small, still significant. Significant in the sense of the data which can be extracted for use on the +2.5 goals market. Analysing how past teams have performed, when possessing an implied probability of 24.93% or less indicates additional evidence in aid of the theory that the current price attached with the +2.5 goals market is in fact inflated. The probability extracted for the occurrence of +2.5 goals from Qarabag?s current price is 55.40% or odds of 1.80.
By simply combining the two sources of data, to generate an early average in which to work from produces a working probability of 57.39% or odds of 1.74. However, by again adding additional sources of data we can discover if in fact there are any holes within the theory. Therefore, by observing the current perception and implied probability attached with +2.5 goals, additional data can be extracted. The implied probability currently attached with +2.5 goals is 46.95%, which situates in a filter of between 44.44% and 49.75%. Breaking down the data suggests that the previous games within these parameters have generated a probability of 51.87% or odds of 1.92. Presenting evidence that the data within these parameters are completely out performing the implied probabilities and odds attached to them.
In conclusion, the data extracted from the three sources individually and as one entity completely outweighs the current perception attached to the +2.5 goals market. The overall probability produced from the three sources of data is 55.55% or odds of 1.80. Therefore, with 46.95% or odds of 2.13 currently on offer this produces a substantial amount of value. This is why I can recommend +2.5 goals at 2.13.
Asian Total Goals Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 2.13
Prices correct at time of writing.
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