Fiorentina v Napoli – Stadio Artemio Franchi at 20.00 live on BT Sport Europe
With all the talk in the British media surrounding the co-efficient during European midweeks, the Premier League will have breathed a huge sigh of relief on Thursday night as both Fiorentina and Napoli exited the Europa League.
With Juventus and Roma’s Champions League chances hanging by a thread, it’s not been a great week for Serie A’s finest on the continental stage.
Nevertheless, British football fans should be encouraged to tune into Monday night’s offering from the peninsula as two of the most attack-minded and aesthetically-pleasing clubs slog it out in Florence.
Fiorentina were swatted aside by Spurs at White Hart Lane on Monday but Paolo Sousa’s troops return to their Stadio Artemio Franchi home eager to get the show back on the road. And La Viola tend to do just that when playing in front of their loyal home supporters.
Monday night’s hosts have bagged 13 victories from their past 16 when welcoming Serie A opposition – 10 of those fixtures finishing with wins by at least a two-goal margin in Fiorentina’s favour. Both Milan clubs have departed Florence empty-handed this season.
Include last season’s results at the Franchi and La Viola have picked up an impressive W19-D7-L6, leading at the interval in 15 of those 32 fixtures. So the 1.91 available on Sousa’s side with a +0.25 Asian Handicap holds plenty of appeal.
Napoli were held to a 1-1 draw last Monday night at home to Milan and could only manage the same scoreline against Villarreal to end their Europa League aspirations in Naples on Thursday. It means Maurizio Sarri’s team have now failed to record a victory in each of their past four (W0-D2-L2).
The Partenopei have surrendered top spot to Juventus and desperately need a win in Florence to reignite their Scudetto challenge. With that in mind, I also like the idea of backing a goal-heavy game with Over 2.5 Goals trading at a more than fair 2.10.
Concerns over the condition of the two teams following Thursday night football look off the mark as the Monday kick-off should allow both sets of players to rest and recuperate in enough time before going again.
Napoli are wonderfully well organised, and more than happy to sit and bide their time against cagey opposition. That’s what tends to lead to their low-scoring wins against the likes of Carpi and Lazio.
When they’re attacked, as they will be here, the Partenopei can be devastating on the counter, and the approach of Paolo Sousa’s side should mean plenty of goalscoring opportunities at the two ends.
Putting the two teams’ 2015/16 domestic records together and we can see that Over 2.5 Goals has proven a profitable formula in 29/52 (56%) of their fixtures, meaning the 2.10 gives us a decent value goals bet to cheer on in Italy.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendations: Fiorentina +0.25 at 1.91 & Over 2.5 goal at 2.10
Prices correct at the time of writing.
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