Real Madrid v Juventus – Santiago Bernabeau Stadium at 19:45 live on Sky Sports 1
This tie is nicely poised after Juventus impressively won in Italy last week 2-1, giving themselves a good chance of reaching the final. Real Madrid’s away goal still puts them in the driving seat, but they will have to raise their game if they are to take one step closer to becoming the first team to defend their Champions League title since Milan in 1990.
Real haven’t hit the form that took them to the top of La Liga in the first half of the season since the turn of the year and have lost 4 of their last 15 matches. After Real Madrid’s draw at home with Valencia at the weekend, their rivals Barcelona only need one more win from their last 2 games to win La Liga.
Los Blancos would have seen Barca make it through to the final with relative ease last night, defeating Bayern Munich 5-3 on aggregate. If defending their UCL title wasn’t enough, to do it against the Blaugrana will certainly add even more desire to make it to the final.
After a 100% record in the group stages, Real have stumbled their way through the knockout stages winning just once in their last 4 matches, a narrow 1-0 against Atletico scoring in the 88th minute after Atleti were reduced to 10-men.
In contrast, Juventus almost failed to make it to the last 16, winning just 3 of their 6 group games, but have improved as the campaign has progressed. They comfortably beat Dortmund and put in a fine tactical display against a resolute Monaco.
The Old Lady have already wrapped up their 4th Scudetto in a row and will be in a confident mood going into tonight’s match. They may not have enough to win the match but they will look for an away goal and rely on their strong defence.
Juve are given +0.75 on the Asian Handicap betting market at 2.17 but I don’t think this represents good value for a team than has only won 2 and drawn 4 in their last 20 European matches in Spain. Similarly, the 1.81 on Real -0.75 just isn’t a big enough price as I’m not confident of them winning by 2 goals to return a full win.
I’m expecting a more tactical encounter than last night’s semi final but I think we will still see goals. Real will want to take an early lead which, if they manage it, will open up the game and force Juve to push for an away goal. My recommendation is to back Over 2.75 goals on the Asian line, giving us a half win if there are 3 and a full win if there are 4 goals.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendations: Over 2.75 goals @ 2.07
Prices correct at time of writing.
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