Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid – Santiago Bernabeu Stadium at 19:45 live on Sky Sports 1

Another fantastic night of European Football this evening and we begin with Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid in the 2nd leg Quarter Final of the Champions League. Real are unlucky not to be bringing a lead back to the Bernabeu after dominating the first half in the reverse fixture last week. Atletico improved in the second half and thanks to young goalkeeper, Jan Oblak, kept a clean sheet, leaving Real without an away goal which could prove costly.

Los Rojiblancos have a real chance of qualifying this evening and although they are the big underdogs at 5.0 to win, Diego Simeone only needs a score draw to make it through to the Semi Finals and represent value on the Asian Handicap betting market with half a goal advantage.

Their recent head to head record favours The Mattress Makers. This will be the 8th meeting between the sides this season and Carlo Ancelotti has yet to register a win. Also in the last 5 Derby Madrileno played at the Bernabeu, Real have only won one, D2 L2.

Domestically, Atleti are all but out of the title race, sitting 9 points behind top of the table Barcelona with 6 games to play in La Liga. It won’t be back to back titles for Simeone but he still can go one better in Europe and win the Champions League after losing in the Final to Real last year. They are 15.0 to lift the trophy.

Real Madrid are within 2 points of leaders Barca but need their rivals to slip up if they are to win their first title since 2011/12.

Los Blancos are 5.2 to retain the UCL title and 1.67 to qualify this evening which, I make too short considering their recent record against Atletico.

The Over/Under market may also represents some value as an alternative, with Over 2.5 goals at 2.06. In Real’s and Atletico’s last 10 home and away European matches, 12 of the 20 have seen 3 goals or more. Also in their last 12 league meetings, 9 were Over 2.5 goals.

If you are expecting goals then another option would be to back Atelti to qualify, rather than on the Asian Handicap, at 2.35, you may have to sweat it out through extra time and penalties though if it ends 0-0. I’m going to stick with Atleti avoiding defeat.

Asian Handicap Recommendation: Atletico Madrid +0.5 @ 2.08

Prices correct at time of writing.

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