January 10, 2017

Reading v QPR Asian Total Goals Preview – Thursday 12th January by @gscurftrader

Reading v QPR – Madejski Stadium at 20:00 live on Sky Sports 1

Analysing the current perception indicates an implied probability of 53.47% being attached with Reading. As a result, situating Jaap Stam and staff within the parameters of host teams possessing an implied probability of between 50.00% and 59.88%. Subsequently, 56.92% of host teams situated identically have been able to clinch all three points. Consequently, leaving a significant amount of value floating around Reading at 1.87. However, the market that appears to possess the most beneficial position is that of +2.5 goals. Observing the previous concluded games, that have been situated within the parameters in which Reading are currently positioned indicates 51.38% of those games involved three or more goals. Hence, equating to odds of 1.95. Therefore with the market currently offering 2.06, significant value appears to be evident on the +2.5 goals market. In addition, 58.33% of Reading’s games at the Madejski Stadium have resulted in +2.5 goals occurring this season. Although, a small sample size an indication of positive vibes to aid the data extracted from Reading’s current implied probability.

Observing the market’s current perception of QPR, indicates an implied probability of 20.40%. As a result, situating the R’s within the parameters of travelling teams possessing an implied probability of 24.93% or less. Subsequently, 13.60% of travelling teams attached with identical market conditions obtained all three points. Therefore, by combining both individual extracts of data an overall probability of 59.77% can be attached with third place Reading. Subsequently with the market currently presenting an entry point of 1.87, a significant amount of value can be achieved by having Reading on side. Following on with QPR’s implied probability, 55.28% of the previous 1279 games situated identically have resulted in three or more goals occurring. Consequently, by combining both sources of data an average of 53.33% can be attached with +2.5 goals. Hence, with the market currently offering an implied probability of 48.54%, an undervalued perception appears to be evident. As a result, producing a beneficial entry point with long term implications. Also in addition, 50.00% of QPR’s games on the road this season have resulted in three or more goals. However, 66.66% of their previous nine Championship games have resulted in +2.5 goals occurring. Again, similar to the seasonal data extracted from Reading. The sample size is small, but it certainly aids the more in-depth data.

In conclusion, with the data presented. The current perception certainly appears to undervalue both Reading (53.47%) in the Match Odds market and +2.5 goals (48.54%). Therefore, with data indicating a rather significant amount of value on +2.5 goals I can recommend a long term beneficial entry point at 2.06.

Asian Total Goals Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 2.06

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @gscurftrader.

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