Real Betis v Eibar – Estadio Benito Villamarín at 17:30 Live at Sky Sports
Real Betis climbed to sixth – the final European qualification spot – in La Liga on Monday night, overtaking their city rivals Sevilla after clinching a fortuitous 1-0 triumph at Getafe. It was Los Verdiblancos’ seventh away success of the season, meaning only the top-four have collected more points on their travels this term.
The Andalusian outfit dominated possession at the Coliseum Alfonso Perez but came under plenty of pressure in a bad-tempered affair. Getafe had a goal ruled out for offside, saw a penalty saved by Betis goalkeeper Antonio Adan and were denied by the woodwork from Vitorino Antunes’ free-kick before visiting substitute Sergio Leon stunned the home fans with a goal two minutes from time.
To add to the Getafe frustration, the hosts felt they’d equalized in stoppage-time as Leandro Cabrera’s header appeared to cross the line but no goal was awarded, allowing Quique Setien’s side to celebrate a sixth league victory in nine outings (W6-D1-L2).
Real Madrid and Valencia are the only two teams to beat Betis during that nine-match sample. And should you exclude the top-five – teams currently above Los Verdiblancos – the Andalusians boast an outstanding W12-D4-L5 return, making Saturday evening’s hosts a promising punting selection.
Eibar attracting outside interest
Guests Eibar pitch up at the Benito Villamarin having failed to take advantage of their superiority in Sunday’s derby against Real Sociedad as their winless run stretched to four games (W0-D2-L2). The hosts enjoyed the lion’s share of chances and possession but were unable to find a breakthrough.
With the campaign coming close to a conclusion, the Basque minnows are attracting plenty of attention from would-be suitors with head coach Jose Luis Mendilibar a possible key personnel leaving in the summer, whilst star man Takashi Inui has already agreed with a move to Saturday’s opposition.
As well as the unsettling nature of contract renewals and interest from elsewhere, Los Armeros’ excellent efforts appear to be running out of steam with the finish line in sight. Eibar has W3-D4-L5 since early January to fall out of the major running for a Europa League qualification place.
Nevertheless, performances have remained reasonably strong from Mendilibar’s men. The underdogs have posted a very impressive 57.70% Expected Goals ratio over their past eight outings whilst Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid accounted for three of those five losses this calendar year.
Goals underrated in Andalusia
Looking purely at results, Real Betis has to appeal at the prices. However, Eibar has remained competitive of late and can play their part in what should be an enjoyable encounter at the Benito Villamarin. Over 2.5 Goals certainly seems overpriced at the 2.03 odds available.
Los Verdiblancos’ games average 3.43 goals-per-game under Setien and 11/15 (73%) of their home outings have featured three or more goals, 7/15 (47%) even beating the Over 3.5 Goals mark. And over their past eight matches, Betis’ encounters are producing 2.91 Expected Goals per-game.
Eibar isn’t quite as prolific but the Basques have scored in nine of their 15 away days, with those fixtures featuring 2.64 goals-per-game. The visitors have delivered Over 2.5 Goals profit in 8/15 (57%) away days, including four of five trips to top-half teams.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.5 Goals at 2.020