Analysing the market’s current perception of Leipzig, indicates an implied probability of 60.97%. As a result, situating Ralph Hasenhüttl and staff within the parameters of host teams possessing an implied probability of between 60.24% and 74.62%. Subsequently, 297 of the previous 498 games (59.64%) has resulted in three or more goals occurring. Hence, by recycling this data upon the market an undervalued approach appears to have been established. Therefore, providing enough expected value which requires further investigation. Host teams that have been attached with implied probabilities, similar to that of Leipzig have amassed a total of 1051 goals from the previous 498 games. As a result, producing an xG rating of 2.11. Somewhat, superior to the 0.90 extracted from the amount of goals host teams have conceded. However, by extracting the total number of goals from those 498 games. An xG rating of 3.01 can be attached with this Bundesliga league match-up. Furthermore, both teams have scored in 264 of the previous 498 games (53.01%). An important factor when analysing games that have potentially beneficial entry points in the +2.5 goals market, as 208 of the 297 games (70.03%) that produced three or more goals also involved both teams scoring. In addition, Leipzig have been attached with similar implied probabilities in games such as (since October 2016); 60.24% v Mainz in a 3-1 win and 62.11% v Hamburg in a 3-0 defeat. Although, an inadequate sample size it provides a bridge to the overall running probability of three or more goals occurring under the current market conditions.
In coordination, with the market’s perception of Leipzig. An implied probability of 16.12% becomes evident on Wolfsburg. As a result, situating Andries Jonker and staff within the parameters of travelling teams possessing an implied probability of 24.93% or less. Subsequently, 840 of the previous 1528 games (54.97%) has resulted in three or more goals occurring. Therefore, by combining both individual sources of data an overall probability of 57.30% (odds of 1.74) can be attached with three or more goal occurring within this game. As a result, of recycling this data upon the market an undervalued approach becomes evident. As the market’s current perception on three or more goals occurring is 53.76% (odds of 1.86). Hence, providing a substantial amount of value as we look to make this our seventh winner in 2017. In addition, when identical market conditions have been evident both teams have scored in 52.06% of games. Thereupon, providing a significant building block towards three or more goals occurring and with Wolfsburg averaging 1.00 goal per game on their travels this season. I can fully expect three or more goals to occur.
Asian Handicap Recommendation: +2.5 goals at 1.86
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Prices correct at time of writing.