RB Leipzig v Mainz – Red Bull Arena at 14:30 GMT live at BT Sport
RB Leipzig slipped to fourth in the Bundesliga standings last weekend after a surprise 3-0 defeat at Freiburg. For the umpteenth time, Die Roten Bullen had difficulty against opponents who handed them possession as they fell to their third defeat on the road already this season.
Ralf Rangnick’s troops have collected only eight points from a possible 21 on their travels but it’s a different story at their fortress Red Bull Arena base – Leipzig have tabled W5-D2-L0 on home soil, by an aggregate 17-3 as the hosts have kept five consecutive clean sheets in front of their home supporters.
RB Leipzig face a must-win Europa League game against Rosenborg on Thursday evening but there’s a possibility Rangnick will prioritise Sunday afternoon’s contest with Mainz as Die Roten Bullen bid to bite back at runaway domestic league leaders Dortmund, with Bayern Munich appearing vulnerable.
Leipzig can make their mark
Either way, RB Leipzig can be backed at 1.70 to overcome a -1 Asian Handicap hurdle on Sunday afternoon, an appealing price considering their formidable home record, and their excellent performance data figures.
Since arriving at the top-flight, Die Roten Bullen boast 26 wins from 41 Bundesliga games at the Red Bull Arena – that’s a 63% win rate. Sixteen (39%) of those victories arrived by a two-goal margin or better with the hosts notching at least twice in 28 (68%) tussles, firing blanks on only four occasions.
Meanwhile, in 2018/19, Leipzig are ranked second behind Bayern in a whole host of advanced data metrics. The hosts are posting 63% shots in the box ratio, 66% Expected Goals ratio and 67% xG from open play ratio figure – numbers that swallow up Mainz’s own returns in the same categories.
Mainz unlikely to stop Red Bull
The visitors rank 14th for the majority of the same metrics and head to Leipzig with a woeful road record in the Bundesliga. Since 2015/16, the away side have been beaten in 23/40 (58%) of their games as guests, with 12 (30%) defeats arriving by two goals or more as they kept only six clean sheets.
Mainz have been beaten in all three meetings with top-six teams this term – shipping eight goals – and their lack of top quality in both boxes is likely to prove their undoing this weekend in what could potentially be a heavy defeat here.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: RB Leipzig -1.00 at 1.700
Preview by: @MarkOHaire.
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