Arsenal v Newcastle
Since he took over at Arsenal, it’s clear what Mikel Arteta has tried to do – improve the defence. He hasn’t necessarily got the results since being appointed but performances has definitely improved, which has been down to their improved defensive record.
They were conceding far too many goals under Unai Emery, which is unsurprising when you have David Luiz, Sokratis Papastathopoulos and Shkodran Mustafi as centre-back options, but they’ve conceded just under a goal a game with Arteta in charge.
This has also meant that a lot of their games under Arteta have seen low-scoring games. Just three of his nine games have seen over 2.5 goals and just one has seen over 3.5 goals. This is partly down to the form of Alexandre Lacazette, who has failed to score in nine games, and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang moving out to the wing.
Newcastle’s games are also notoriously low scoring, Just 11 of their 25 games (44%) this season have gone over 2.5 goals and 9 of those matches (36%) seeing under 1.5 goals.
I also tend to back against goals in their games, mainly down to the form of record signing Joelinton, who has failed to live up to the hype since moving to the Magpies in the summer. Allan Saint-Maximin is someone that has impressed me but there are questions over this fitness.
I think the 2.010 available on under 2.75 in this game is a superb price and I don’t think the bookies have quite cottoned on to Arteta’s defence-first style of football. This bet will land if we see zero, one or two goals in the match, and we’ll get half of our stake refunded if there are three goals, which I think makes this a really good bet.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Under 2.75 goals at 2.010
Manchester City v West Ham
West Ham haven’t improved since sacking Manuel Pellegrini and look to have got even worse since the reappointment of David Moyes. The Hammers chucked away a two-goal lead at the weekend as Brighton came from 3-1 down to draw 3-3 at the London Stadium, leaving the East London side in the relegation zone.
They have some top quality talent but it just isn’t working for them this season. Sebastian Haller, Felipe Anderson, Pablo Fornals and Issa Diop all came to the club for big money but have failed to drag West Ham out of the trouble they’re in. New signing Jarrod Bowen even demanded there be a relegation release clause in his contract should they go down, possibly implying his lack of confidence in his new side.
Manchester City dominated Tottenham on Sunday, but a red card to Oleksandr Zinchenko allowed Spurs to have two shots and score two goals. That 2-0 defeat played no real part in the title race, with it already seemingly in Liverpool’s hands, but Pep Guardiola will undoubtedly want to bounce back with a win here.
City’s form after losing games this season is also worth mentioning, with Guardiola’s ability to pick his team up after defeat particularly impressive. They’ve won all five games after losing this season, including an 8-0 victory over Watford, a 3-0 win away at Arsenal and a 2-1 win over Chelsea.
I’m going to back City with a -2.75 start here, which would mean a four-goal winning margin for the home side would result in a full return and a victory by three or more goals will give us a half-win. West Ham are absolutely dire at the moment and I have full faith that City will put them to the sword at the Etihad.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Man City -2.75 at 2.010
Chelsea v Manchester United
You have to wonder how either of these sides are anywhere near the top four this season after some poor results and terrible performances, at times. But I think one side is significantly better than the other and, despite Manchester United winning 4-0 at Old Trafford at the start of the season, I think Chelsea will get their revenge here.
Marcus Rashford is a huge loss for United and, although they brought in former Watford striker Odion Ighalo on loan on Deadline Day, they’re lacking some serious firepower up-front. They’ve failed to score in four of their last five Premier League games, with Anthony Martial, Daniel James and Mason Greenwood failing to fill Rashford’s boots. It’s yet to be seen whether Ighalo will play any part here but you have to question how match fit he’ll be, with his last game coming on December 6.
Chelsea’s goals have also slightly dried up since the start of the season, with England striker Tammy Abraham cooling off slightly since his hot start to the season. Christian Pulisic, who also frequently got on the scoresheet during the first half of the season, is out injured and Mason Mount’s form has taken a dramatic dip.
The Blues managed to keep hold of Olivier Giroud on Deadline Day, despite interest from Tottenham, and Frank Lampard may decide to start the big Frenchman if Abraham, who has scored just two goals in his last nine games, fails to find the back of the net.
Of United last 16 games, they’ve won just three, which is a damning inditement of how poor they’ve been under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. I don’t think the Norwegian is good enough to be in charge at Old Trafford and I can see another defeat for the former striker here.
You can back the home side at 1.775 and, with one defeat in their last six league games, I can see them coming away with all three points here, in a game I expect them to shutout a poor United attack.
1×2 Betting Recommendation: Chelsea to win at 1.775
Preview by: @AdamGoodwin
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