Bournemouth v Manchester United
Games between these two always seem to offer goals and I expect an entertaining game at the Vitality Stadium once again.
This is despite Bournemouth’s lack of goals recently. They haven’t score for three games against some pretty average defences in recent games, however, I feel like this is just a blip and they have good enough forwards to trouble any team in the league.
Callum Wilson and Josh King have formed a really good partnership over the last few years and, with the likes of Ryan Fraser and Harry Wilson supplying them from either wing, it’s almost harder them to not find the back of the net.
Despite those three blanks, the Cherries scored 13 goals in their opening seven games, which is almost two per game. And, like most teams, they’ll relish going up against a Manchester United who have certainly struggled at times this season.
As for United, they re-found their shooting boots away at Norwich last weekend, scoring three goals and posting an xG (Expected Goals) of 4.5. Marcus Rashford now has some support up-top with Anthony Martial returning to fitness and youngster Mason Greenwood creeping into the first-team picture, so they’re not short of exciting forwards.
I mentioned these two and their goal-heavy head-to-head record, and there’s been an average of three goals in their previous meetings since Bournemouth were promoted in 2015. There’s been two 3-1’s and a 4-1 in those games and I can see a similar scoreline here.
You can back over 2.5 Asian goals at 1.850 and, with both sides’ defences looking suspect at the moment, I think the likes of Wilson, King, Rashford and Martial will all fancy their chances of getting on the scoresheet on the south coast on Saturday lunchtime. This is a simple one, three or more goals and we have ourselves a winner.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.50 goals at 1.850
Sheffield United v Burnley
Burnley are stereotypically a very industrious side that are predominantly defensive minded, but they’re actually one of the top scoring sides in the league this season. Just seven other teams have scored more than Sean Dyche’s side this season, but I think this is a slightly misleading statistic.
Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes have scored nearly 60% of those goals, and another two of those were long-range strikers late on against Chelsea last weekend. Wood is struggling for fitness and Barnes hasn’t scored for the last few weeks, so I can see the Clarets having to revert back to their more cautious approach this weekend.
I mentioned the other week that Sheffield United were lacking someone to score them goals, and a couple of weeks later Lys Mousset starts getting amongst the goals for the Blades. He hasn’t proved me wrong just yet, but perhaps he’s the man that can help get Chris Wilder’s side finally find the net more regularly.
They’ve scored nine goals in their opening ten games, which isn’t a great record at all, and they haven’t necessarily got the xG to suggest this will improve. I like a lot of their defensive and midfield players – the likes of Jack O’Connell and John Fleck – but I’m not convinced this will help them improve their poor goal record anytime soon.
On paper, this game stood out as a low-scoring game straight away and, when I delved deeper into the stats, they back my original ideas up. Under 2.25 Asian goals is available at 1.840, which would mean even three goals would see us win half of our return. One or two goals would result in a full pay out, four or more would be a loser.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Under 2.250 goals at 1.840
West Ham v Newcastle
I backed Newcastle last weekend at home to Wolves and they let me down. It’s safe to say I’m not doing the same thing again this week. Part of the reason for that is their miserable away record. They’ve lost four of their last five games on the road – their only win was a 1-0 victory at Tottenham which, admittedly, a good result. But it was at the start of Spurs’ poor run, so it seems like they caught them at the right time.
I question where their goals are coming from. Joelinton still hasn’t quite hit the heights that most people were expecting to and Miguel Almiron has failed to score or assist since his move from the MLS almost a year ago. Their goal in their 1-1 draw with Wolves last weekend came courtesy of a set-piece and, if that’s their main source of goals on Saturday, I think they’ll struggle against a West Ham side who have some aerially strong players.
I’m a fan of Manuel Pellegrini’s West Ham this season. Their underlying numbers haven’t been great, but I think that they’ve got too many talented players not to cause teams problems. I’ve hammered (pardon the pun) on about the attacking trio of Manuel Lanzini, Felipe Anderson and Sebastian Haller, and they are always set-up to entertain at the London Stadium.
They were unfortunate to not get a win against Sheffield United in East London in their last home game but, generally, have a solid record in front of their home fans. You can back them to win at 1.900 to pick up all three points in this game and I think this looks a really good price.
1×2 Betting Recommendation: West Ham to win at 1.900
Preview by: @AdamGoodwin__
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