Southampton v Bournemouth
This is somewhat of a South Coast derby and, although some people might disagree, both teams will be desperate to win this one.
These sides’ recent form is mixed, to say the least, both winning two, drawing one and losing two in the league. Southampton sit in 10th, Bournemouth sit in 9th, and both are on the same points and goal difference. It really is impossible to split these two sides.
Ralph Hasenhuttl’s Southampton have scored in every game since the first game of the season, recording good Expected Goals (xG) numbers and creating lots of chances. They’ve got an xG of 7.66 in five their opening five games and despite new striking signing Che Adams failing to find the net yet, he has an xG of 2.46 so I think his maiden goal is just around the corner.
They scraped a win away at Sheffield United in their last game and, as they return back to St Mary’s, they’ll be hoping to impress their home fans with a convincing win on Friday night.
Bournemouth have got a few key players out injured, but that didn’t stop them tossing Everton aside at the Vitality Stadium last weekend. Callum Wilson has started to get back amongst the goals for the Cherries and he was on the scoresheet twice in that game on Sunday.
All of Bournemouth’s games have seen both teams scoring and, although their strike force of Ryan Fraser and Callum and Harry Wilson has been firing, their defence has looked shaky. Over 3.5 goals has landed in all of their last three games and I can see another goal fest here.
The goal line is set at 2.75 and I like the look of overs at 1.960. I like the look of this price and we’d see a pay out for four goals or more, and a half pay out for three.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.75 goals at 1.960
Leicester v Tottenham
I really like the look of Leicester this season. I think they’re a very well-balanced team with a good manager in Brendan Rodgers. They’ll be a tough team to play for anyone in the league and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them creep into the top six this campaign.
However, they did lose their last game against Manchester United, as a Marcus Rashford penalty resulted in Leicester’s first defeat of the season. That was one of just three defeats in their last 14 league games though – United and Manchester City being two of them and a slip-up against Newcastle the other. That defeat against the Magpies was their only one in their last eight home games too, winning five and drawing two of the rest. A pretty impressive record.
I spoke about their balanced squad earlier and that’s one of the main reasons why they’ve been so consistent. They’ve got a solid ‘keeper in Kasper Schmeichel, Ben Chilwell and Ricardo Pereira are key men out wide, Wilfried Ndidi and James Maddison offer a great mix in midfield, and they have a real goal-getter in Jamie Vardy, all of which will cause Tottenham problems on Saturday.
As for Spurs, they play in the Champions League on Wednesday and it’ll be tough for them to come to the King Power Stadium and compete against this energetic Leicester team four days after that trip to Greece.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side looked comfortable against Crystal Palace last weekend as they thrashed them 4-0 at home, but they haven’t won an away league game since 20th January which is a pretty worrying stat. Harry Kane has been out of form recently and with Jan Vertonghen in and out the team, this won’t be an easy game at all.
You can back Leicester with a +0.25 start at 1.840 and that’s one of my favourite bets of the weekend. If the Foxes play to their full potential, I can’t see them losing this game.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Leicester +0.25 at 1.840
Everton v Sheff Utd
As I mentioned earlier, Everton and Sheffield United lost their last games and both will be hoping to bounce back with wins here.
United will have certainly felt aggrieved after that defeat as Oli McBurnie had a goal ruled out due to a contentious VAR decision. They beat Southampton in the xG score in that game and would’ve arguably come out with something from the game if Billy Sharp hadn’t been sent off. Their games have all been very tight this season and have all come down to a single goal, so don’t be surprised if this one is too.
I’m a fan of Chris Wilder and the way he sets his team up but I think their lack of goals could be a problem and, with Sharp suspended and David McGoldrick failing to find any form, they’re relying on Callum Robinson and Lys Mousset to find the back of the net.
Everton have actually been very disappointing this season and, despite getting some decent results, the stats and performances don’t necessarily back that up. They’ve won both games and lost all three away games so it’s clear to see where they’ll pick up most of their points this season if things carry on the way they are at the moment.
It’s surprising to see their xG numbers are so poor when you look at their offensive players. Richarlison, Alexi Iwobi, Moise Kean and Gylfi Sigurdsson make up their front four and I think we saw glimpses of how exciting they can be in that 3-2 win over Watford. I think it’s just a matter of time before it all clicks for them.
I’m actually going to back the Toffees here because of their home form and, when you consider that this will probably be a top half team against a relegation candidate come the end of the season, they look a good price at 1.625. I don’t think it’ll necessarily be a walkover for Marco Silva’s side but I fully expect them to come away with all three points.
1×2 Betting Recommendation: Home to win at 1.625
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