Wolves v Chelsea

This pick won’t surprise too many people, when you consider how impressive Wolves have been against the top six sides. But, before we delve into that, we’ll take a look at how these two have done so far this season.

I’ve actually opposed Wolves a couple of times already this campaign, mainly down to their involvement in the Europa League, and they’ve had a mixed start in the league. They drew their first three games, scoring two and conceding two, against Leicester, Manchester United and Burnley. And, before the international break, they were involved in a 3-2 defeat to Everton, which was a complete contrast to their other games.

Raul Jimenez scored in that defeat and they’ve been relying too heavily on the Mexican, with Diogo Jota not quite hitting the ground running. The only game they’ve lost the xG (Expected Goals) was against United and, after appearing to play in a more offensive manner against Everton, I think their form will start to improve.

As for Chelsea, they’ve conceded far too many goals. They shipped another two against newly promoted Sheffield United two weeks ago in a 2-2 draw, meaning that’s now nine goals in four games that has ended up in the back of Kepa’s net. Individual errors have been the main cause of their defensive frailties, and I think Jimenez and Jota will be the type of players to capitalise on any lapses in concentration on Saturday.

Going back to their record against top six sides that now seems to be common knowledge, it’s now four wins, five draws and four losses – with three of those defeats coming against Manchester City and Liverpool. So, with an improvement in performance against Everton (despite the defeat), I see no reason why they can’t get their first win of the season at the Molineux at the weekend.

You can back Nuno Espirito Santo’s side at 2.100 with a +0.00 start on the Asian Handicap, which would see money back if Wolves draw and a full payout if they win, which seems a really nice price.

Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Wolves DNB at 2.100

Brighton v Burnley

Brighton have had a really good start to the season under Graham Potter, especially as they were tipped by many to go down. They thrashed Watford in their opening game of the season and then drew with West Ham, before losing to Southampton after Andone was sent off and then getting smashed by Manchester City – something that will happen to many teams this season. There’s been plenty of positives for the Seagulls, and it’s now time to get their first home win of the season against Burnley.

The Clarets have also had a decent start to the season after some games against decent sides, and currently sit in 12th in the early Premier League table. They’ve lost to Arsenal and Liverpool, drawn with Wolves, and beat Southampton 3-0 in their first game of the campaign.

However, it’s their most recent game against Liverpool that’s worried me. It’d be unfair to judge them purely in that one game against one of the best sides in the division, but there was one thing that stood out for me. Ashley Barnes has been their star man in the opening four games, bagging four goals in that time. However, Liverpool kept him extremely quiet and it prevented Burnley from creating any real chances. Potter will have acknowledged this, and Barnes against Lewis Dunk will be a superb battle at the AMEX on Saturday.

I don’t think Brighton have put in a poor performance yet this season and, strangely, I think they would have taken confidence from that 4-0 defeat to City. When you compare both squads, I think the home side have a far superior starting XI and, at home, I think the 2.100 available on them to win is more than generous.

1×2 Betting Recommendation: Brighton to win at 2.100

Aston Villa v West Ham

It’s got to that stage of the season when you start to notice certain trends, and I’m following one with this bet, here. Aston Villa and West Ham have scored and conceded a collective 23 goals in 8 games so far this campaign, averaging 2.875 per game. So, goals is the play here. But It’s not just the amount of goals involved when these two play.

Firstly, Villa manager Dean Smith loves to play attacking football. He plays a 4-3-3 with three fairly offensive midfielders and two attacking wingers, with the full-backs also encouraged to bomb on. This showed in the Championship when his side scored and conceded one of the most in the league. I would also tend to back them at home, because of how much the fans seem to have an impact on their games. This showed in their 2-0 win over Everton and, although it’s overused, the phrase “the fans suck the ball into the net” is definitely relevant here.

As for West Ham, their front four excites me. New signing Sebastian Haller has started extremely well and with the likes of Manuel Lanzini, Felipe Anderson and Andriy Yarmolenko around him, it’s hard to see them not scoring goals. Their xG has also been very good so far this season, recording 7.88 in their four games. The Hammers scored three goals away at Watford a few weeks ago, which will give them confidence to go on the road and find the back of the net again.

You can back over 3.00 goals here at 2.060 and, under the lights at Villa Park on Monday night, I think this will be a really entertaining game. Three goals would see us get our money back and four or more would result in a full payout.

Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 3.00 goals at 2.060

Preview by:@AdamGoodwin__

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