Parma v Inter Milan – Ennio Tardini at 19:30 GMT live at Premier Sport
Parma picked up a memorable and dramatic late 3-3 draw at all-conquering Juventus last weekend to cement their place in mid-table, 12 points clear of the relegation zone. Trailing 3-1, the Ducali snatched a stoppage-time equaliser in Turin with Gervinho bagging a brace.
Head coach Roberto D’Aversa hailed his team post-match and admitted, “We never stopped believing.” The Parma boss said, “We came out with a different attitude in the second half and really gave Juve a game.”
There were, of course, mitigating circumstances. Juventus twice hit the woodwork, whilst the Old Lady were also playing without the injured Giorgio Chiellini, Leonardo Bonucci and Andrea Barzagli for the first time since 2011. Parma enjoyed less than 30% of the ball but still managing to pinch a point.
The result is a timely reminder of what this club is capable of. After the doom and gloom of bankruptcy and near extinction over the past 15 years, and the second rebirth in the space of a decade, the Ducali achieved three successive promotions to book a romantic return in Serie A this season.
Led by D’Aversa, the Gialloblu have made an excellent impact in the top-flight and managed to win away at Inter Milan earlier in the season. Unsurprisingly, the bulk of their good work has come against the league’s lesser lights, but there’s a fighting spirit about this side that certainly shouldn’t be discounted.
Inter under pressure
If there’s an air of positivity surrounding Parma, the same cannot be said of Inter. Luciano Spalletti could reportedly be sacked after this weekend’s match with the club’s CEO Beppe Marotta reportedly “taking stock of the situation” following the Nerazzurri’s dreadful 1-0 defeat to Bologna last Sunday.
The former Roma boss has presided over three straight defeats, one of which saw the Beneamata exit the Coppa Italia, and still no win this calendar year. Antonio Conte, who worked under Marotta at Juventus between 2011 and 2014, has been increasingly linked with following the executive to Inter.
It puts a lot of pressure on the visitors this weekend and they make no appeal at short-priced favouritism to escape with maximum points.
But there’s more value in opposing goals than an Inter win here on Saturday night. The Nerazzurri’s past eight games have all delivered Under 2.5 Goals profit with seven of those showdowns featuring no more than a solitary strike.
Since the November international break, Inter have only twice scored more than one goal in a Serie A game and their Expected Goals per-game average stands at a measly 2.14 this season, dropping to just 1.64 when away from the San Siro and only 1.34 when viewing open play attempts.
Parma aren’t quite so stingy but seven of their 11 outings in front of home supporters have produced Under 2.5 Goals winners, whilst those games are averaging only 2.18 goals per-game, suggesting the 2.00 available on a low-scoring tie is well worth supporting.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Under 2.50 goals at 2.000
Preview by: @MarkOHaire.
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