December 19, 2016

Panthers @ Redskins NFL Handicap Betting Preview – Tuesday 20th December by @gscurftrader

Carolina Panthers @ Washington Redskins – FedExField at 01:30 live on Sky Sports 1

Analysing the market’s current perception indicates an implied probability of 72.99% being attached with the Washington Redskins (7-5-1). As a result, situating Jay Gruden and staff within the parameters of host teams possessing an implied probability of between 66.66% and 99.00%. Hence, 77.78% of host teams situated within these parameters have obtained victory. Subsequently, equating to odds of 1.29 and therefore indicating early signs of value being available on the Washington Redskins. Consequently, the Redskins have been awarded implied probabilities of; 45.45% (W1) v Pittsburgh Steelers, 59.88% (W2) v Dallas Cowboys, 76.33% (W4) v Cleveland Browns, 42.37%% (W6) v Philadelphia Eagles, 59.52% (W10) v Minnesota Vikings and 58.13% (W11) v Green Bay Packers at FedEx Field this season. Hence, the current implied probability attached with the Redskins is their second most significant implied probability of the season. Only being eclipsed by the 76.33% implied probability in W4 v Cleveland Browns. As a result, Washington have only been attached with identical market conditions in one other game this season, which resulted in a 31-20 victory.

The most intriguing market is the handicap spread, in which the line has been set at -7.0 while attaching an implied probability of 48.30% (odds of 2.07). However, by analysing the data extracted from the filter in which Washington are situated indicates 52.38% of host teams have covered the -7.0 spread. As a result, generating a favourable margin in favour of having the Redskins -7.0 on side. With that being said, further analysis is required. Washington have averaged 25.4 points per game this season, while an increase is evident with games being played at FedExField (27.5ppg).

Following on, in cooperation with the perception attached with the Redskins. The market has awarded the 5-8 Carolina Panthers an implied probability of 28.16%. As a result, situating Ron Rivera and staff within the parameters of travelling teams possessing an implied probability of 33.22% or less. Hence, only 18.97% of travelling teams situated within the filter in which the Panthers are situated have obtained victory. Subsequently, producing an overall probability of 79.40% (odds of 1.25) being attached with the Washington Redskins. Therefore, generating long term value and a beneficial entry point. The market has attached a significant range of implied probabilities with Carolina on the road this year often favouring last season’s NFC Champions; 58.82% (W1) @ Denver Broncos, 58.47% (W4) @ Atlanta Falcons, 57.14% (W6) @ New Orleans Saints, 62.11% (W9) @ Los Angeles Rams, 39.06% (W12) @Oakland Raiders and 23.80% (W13) @ Seattle Seahawks. As you can see, the market has attached some significant implied probabilities to the Panthers this season.

In addition, with the data extracted from the Redskins implied probability. By analysing the data from within the filter in which the Panthers are situated indicates only 41.38% of travelling teams have maintained the +7.0 handicap. Therefore, handing the Redskins an additional pillar in the theory of them covering the current spread. As a result, of combining both sets of extracted data an overall probability of 55.55% (odds of 1.80) can be attached with the Washington Redskins covering the -7.0 handicap. Consequently, with the market currently offering 2.07. A substantial amount of value has been established.

Handicap Betting Recommendation: Washington Redskins -7 at 2.07

By @gscurftrader.

Prices correct at time of writing.

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