November 28, 2016

Packers @ Eagles NFL Handicap Betting Preview – Tuesday 29th November by @gscurftrader

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles – Lincoln Financial Field at 01:30 live on Sky Sports 1

After what has been a tremendous week of football, we arrive at the final game of week 12. As the (5-5) Philadelphia Eagles host the (4-6) Green Bay Packers in an intriguing NFC match-up. Analysing the market’s perception, indicates an implied probability of 62.89% being attached with the Philadelphia Eagles. As a result, situating the rookie Carson Wentz and staff within the parameters of host teams possessing an implied probability of between 52.63% and 66.22%. However, by breaking down the data extracted from this filter indicates that only 56.14% of host teams have obtained victory. Subsequently, equating to odds of 1.78. Therefore, with the market currently offering 1.59 it may prove beneficial to avoid the Eagles at this early stage. Philadelphia have been flawless at Lincoln Financial Field this season, bolstering a record of (4-0). Consequently, those wins have come against the Cleveland Browns (0-10), Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5), Minnesota Vikings (6-5) and the (7-4) Atlanta Falcons. The market appears to be indecisive around Philadelphia at Lincoln Financial Field this season, with implied probabilities of; 62.89%, 38.16%, 42.37% and 56.81%. Therefore, to create an element of perspective. The market has awarded Philadelphia the exact same implied probability as they possessed in week 1, when the Cleveland Browns visited. With that being said, I wouldn’t hold Green Bay in the same perspective as Cleveland. However, given the current market conditions this is evident.

The most intriguing aspect of this game comes in the form of the ‘Total Points’ market. As a result of the parameters in which Philadelphia are situated, +48.5 total points has occurred in 52.63% of games this season. However, in comparison to the market’s perception in which is presented through an implied probability of 47.61% early signs of value are evident. Philadelphia have averaged 27.0 points per game at Lincoln Field this season which certainly aids the theory of value being obtained on the +48.5 total points market. An additional extract of data worth noting is; Philadelphia are currently (3-5) in the NFC this season and have given up on average 21.60 points per games in their previous five encounters against NFC rivals.

In coordination, with the implied probability attached with the hosts. The Green Bay Packers (4-6) have been awarded an implied  probability of 37.03%. As a result, situating Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay roster within the parameters of travelling teams possessing an implied probability of between 33.33% and 39.84%. Therefore, awarding Green Bay their lowest implied probability of the season with only; W8 @ Atlanta (40.65%) and W11 @ Washington (42.37%) coming close. However, by observing the data extracted from the filter in which the Packers are situated indicates 42.31% of travelling teams have left with a victory. As a result, potentially establishing an angle of value on the Green Bay Packers. However, the worrying extract of data that can’t be ignored is Green Bay’s current run of form. The Packers have conceded an average of 38.25 points per game, in their previous four NFL games. Which has consequently led to a four game losing streak. Taking into consideration the Packers form this season, the market has yet to put a firm hand on a ligament position for Mike McCarthy and Green Bay. Hence, with only one other team possessing more love from the market and failing to deliver on a weekly basis; Cincinnati Bengals.  

Following on, further evidence to bolster the theory of +48.5 total points possessing value is evident within the data situated in Green Bay’s implied probability. Hence, 57.69% of games situated within the exact market conditions have resulted in +48.5 total points occurring. As a result, further establishing that value can be obtained by having the overs on side. Therefore, by combining the two individual sources of data an overall probability of 55.16% or odds of 1.81 can be recycled upon the market. Subsequently, with the market currently offering 2.10 a significant amount of value has been established.NFL Handicap Betting Preview 29/11/2016

Handicap Betting Recommendation: Over 48.5 Points at 2.10

By @gscurftrader.

Prices correct at time of writing.

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