Norwich v Bristol City – Carrow Road at 19:45
In my previous preview, I recommended +2.5 goals in the QPR v Swindon EFL Cup game. After a frustrating 90 minutes the game ended 1-1, with the continued support of +2.5 goals pre-game seemingly also finding themselves on the wrong side of the result.
Observing the fixture arrangement for Tuesday, commanding entry points can be found with the sheer number of games from the public to pick from. The standout fixture is the game between Norwich and Bristol City with an attractive price available in the +2.5 goals market.
The market’s current perception on Norwich, generates a probability of 53.47%. This probability is within the filters of what I personally reflect upon when selecting potential games in which to become involved with.
Previous performances from teams presented with similar probabilities as Norwich, can be used to reflect upon the +2.5 goals market. For instance, looking back upon past results, historical data generates a probability of 50.66% or odds of 1.97. Therefore, already providing early signs of value.
In comparison, historical data also provides additional evidence in favour of a commanding entry point. The market currently has Bristol City’s probability of continuing their perfect start to the season at; 20.00% or odds of 5.00. Through the observation of teams past performances within the filters in place. This allows a probability which can be recycled upon the +2.5 goals market. Historical data extracted from teams priced identically or similarly to Bristol City, generates a probability of 55.30% in favour of +2.5 goals occurring.
In addition, to the data which has been presented from the market’s current perception on team probabilities. Important data can also be extracted from the market’s current perception on the +2.5 goals market. Through, past performances of the +2.5 goals market priced similarly or identically to this current market. Data generates a probability of occurrence in the region of 51.90% or odds of 1.92. Therefore, underlining the fact that market’s current perception on this market indeed seems weak.
Correspondingly, data extracted from previous performances on the +2.5 goals market generate probabilities for goals to be scored in the opening 20 minutes or within the first half. Observing the current position in which the +2.5 goals is positioned, in fact generates the second highest probability of a goal being scored within the opening 20 minutes which is 45.60%.
In conclusion, by producing an average occurrence from the data presented. This allows a solid foundation in which to base our intent, whether to become involved or not. Through obtaining the average occurrence, which is 52.62% or 1.90 produces a clear indication that value can be obtained from this market.
For this reason, I can recommend +2.5 goals at the current price available which is 2.08.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 2.08
Prices correct at time of writing.
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