October 9, 2016

NFL Handicap Betting Preview Week 5 – Tuesday 11th October by @gscurftrader

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers – 01:30

The current perception attached to the NFC Champions is similar to what has been reflected so far this season. The odds attached to Carolina this season have been 1.70, 1.17, 1.35 and 1.71. The Panthers were the same price on the road in Denver as they were in Atlanta, which considering that those two faced each other on Sunday is odd, particularly when Denver where -4.0 on the handicap line with the opening line being -5.5.

Analysing how home teams with implied probabilities of between 52.63% and 66.22% have performed, produces a performance rating of 51.19% or odds of 1.95. This clearly introduces a red flag, based upon Carolina’s current price of 1.53.

The current handicap line is +/- 4.5, which given the struggles of home teams within the presented filters being made evident. The value angle maybe verified with Tampa +4.5, with dogs covering the spread in 62.25% of games under the current market conditions.

The Panthers have covered the -4.5 handicap in only 25.00% of their games this season, this being their sole win of the year. Which filters from a 46-27 win over San Francisco, remarkably the 49ers generated more points against Carolina than last years Super Bowl winners and the 5-0 Minnesota Vikings. However, arguably the hottest offensive line in football at this stage of the season exposed Carolina’s defensive woes. Making the analogy of comparing Atlanta’s offensive line with Tampa’s offensive line may be rather over indulgent; however this does provide opportunities for Winston and Co to exploit.

Defensively Carolina have averaged 29.5 points in their opening four games, while offensively averaging 27.25 points per game. Consequently, with Cam Newton out due to concussion protocol a decline in the offensive average would not come as a shock to most.

The Buccaneers have generated an offensive average of 19.25 points per game this season. Furthermore, only producing seven points in two of their four games this season (W4 v Denver and W2 v Arizona). Again, I’m not comparing the Panthers defensive line with Denver’s, as this is evidently two units on different levels. However, this is enough to suggest siding with the unders in this NFC South match-up. Or is it…? Tampa @ Atlanta in Week 1 (NFC South match-up) finished 31-24.

This is how the overs have performed, from home teams with implied probabilities of between 52.63% and 66.22% so far this season;

  • +38.5 = 78.26% or odds of 1.28
  • +40.5 = 69.57% or odds of 1.44
  • +44.5 = 65.22% or odds of 1.53
  • +48.5 = 52.17% or odds of 1.92

In comparison, this is how the overs have performed from away teams with implied probabilities of between 33.33% and 39.84% so far this season;

  • +38.5 = 72.73% or odds of 1.38
  • +40.5 = 72.73% or odds of 1.38
  • +44.5 = 72.73% or odds of 1.38
  • +48.5 = 54.55% or odds of 1.83

Taking both sides of data into consideration, the averages generated from the data on hand is as follows;

  • +38.5 = 75.49% or odds of 1.32
  • +40.5 = 71.15% or odds of 1.40
  • +44.5 = 68.97% or odds of 1.44
  • +48.5 = 53.36% or odds of 1.87

(This does not include Week 5 data)

To conclude, recycling this data upon the markets indicates profitable angles which can be manipulated. The market of interest is over 48.5 total points and with 2.29 currently available, that price generates fantastic value based upon the data presented.

Handicap Betting Recommendation: Over 48.5 Total Points at 2.29

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @gscurftrader.

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