October 17, 2016

Jets @ Cardinals NFL Handicap Betting Previews Week 6 – Tuesday 18th October by @gscurftrader

New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals – University of Phoenix Stadium at 01:30 live on Sky Sports 1

Observing the current market perception through the implied probability attached with Arizona, allows historical data to advise into which markets possess the most beneficial points in which to manipulate. The market suggests that Arizona possess a probability of 76.33%, which situates the Cardinals within the filter of home teams possessing implied probabilities of  between 66.66% and 99.00%. Therefore by analysing how previous teams have performed in identical market conditions, allows a reflection on how this game is likely to conclude. Therefore by observing the percentage presented, this suggests Arizona possess a probability of 77.27% or odds of 1.29. Consequently, in accordance with the implied probability attached from the market’s perception.

As a result the minus handicap also possess a significant percentage, with the -9.5 handicap being covered in 40.91% of games this season. The prices attached with the Cardinals this year have been; 1.27, 1.32, 1.55, 1.30 and 1.60. The largest price coming against San Francisco on the road, with backup quarterback Drew Stanton making his first start of the year. Arizona have produced an average of 25.00 points per game on offense this year, with above average performances in games against Tampa Bay and San Francisco. Currently the handicap line is -/+7.5, which with an implied probability of 50.00% doesn’t seem attractive in comparison with the 40.91% implemented from historical data.

The market which seems to possess the most beneficial entry point based upon Arizona’s current probability, is that of the -44.5 total points. Analysing the data on -44.5 suggests the probability presented should be 50.00% or odds of 2.00. However the market perceives that -44.5 total points should possess a probability of 45.45%. Therefore, leading to a valuable entry point at 2.20.

Analysing the implied probability attached with the 1-4 New York Jets, situates them within the filter of travelling teams possessing a probability of 33.22% or less. The next step is to observe how travelling teams have performed within this filter, which provides a substandard performance rating of 23.81%. Combining the data extracted from both sources for the ‘Moneyline’ market implements probabilities of 76.73% for the Cardinals and 23.27% for the Jets.

Similar to the data extracted from Arizona’s current price, the current handicap line does not appear to provide enough evidence in favour of becoming involved within this market. The New York Jets have began games this year at odds of; 2.04, 2.04, 2.30, 2.16 and 4.40. The largest price coming in week five in Pittsburgh, resulting in a 31-13 loss. The New York Jets have averaged 18.40 points per game on offense this season, with below average performances coming in weeks; three, four and five. Amassing to only 33 offensive points in the previous three game weeks, with games against Kansas City on the road, Seattle at home and on the road in Pittsburgh.

Moving on to the market that possesses the greatest face value. In addition with the data extracted from Arizona, -44.5 total points has occurred in 52.38% of games equating to odds of 1.90. With this in mind by combining the two separate sources of data extracted from both the Cardinals and the Jets, the overall probability of -44.5 total points occurring in this AFC/NFC matchup is 51.19% or odds of 1.95. Therefore with the market currently offering 2.20, a profitable angle has been identified. For this reason, I can recommend -44.5 total points in this Monday Night Football edition.

Handicap Betting Recommendation: -44.5 total points at 2.20

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @gscurftrader.

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