October 14, 2016

NFL Data Analysis: Week 6 – Friday 13th October by @gscurftrader

Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots – Sunday at 18:00

The implied probability currently attached to the New England Patriots, situates them within the filter of home teams possessing implied probabilities of between 66.66% and 99.00%. Which as anticipated generates a substantial probability, with 77.27% of games resulting in a home win. The teams beaten within this filter have been; Arizona 1.27, Detroit 1.43, Carolina 1.35, New England 1.36, Arizona 1.30 and Carolina 1.42. However, with that being said 50.00% of those games included a backup quarterback.

The Patriots prices this year have been; 4.50, 1.40, 2.04, 1.36 and 1.23. Although, in game week five when New England were on the road to Cleveland, the market currently perceives likeness between Cleverland at home and Cincinnati on the road. Which based upon my personal preference, is insulting to Cincinnati. However, personal preference is a dangerous concept. Therefore, by observing the data available a stable outlook can be established.

The current handicap line is +/-8.5. By observing how home teams have performed within this filter, historical data can establish whether value is available with the plus or minus handicap. In addition, home teams with implied probabilities of between 66.66% and 99.00% have covered the -8.5 handicap in 40.91% of games. Hence, why the market may be over indulging in the New England Patriots with odds of 1.98 available. On the other hand, the +8.5 has generated a performance rating of 59.06% or odds of 1.69.

Analysing the data generated, establishes an early indication that it may be beneficial to side with the unders with 54.55% of games going -47.0 total points. Translating to odds of 1.83, highlighting the 2.00 available as tremendous value.

Correspondingly, the implied probability attached with Cincinnati has them situated with roads teams possessing probabilities of 33.22% of less. Similarly to the filter in which the Patriots are situated, emphasising a strong supremacy rating for Belicheck and Brady indicating a probability of 76.19% or odds of 1.31.

In comparison with the data presented for the handicap line from the Patriots current price, the Bengals currently indicate that the -8.5 handicap has been covered in 57.15% of games. Hence generating an overall running probability of 49.03% for the Patriots to cover the -8.5 spread, while awarding the Bengals a probability of 50.97% to maintain the +8.5 spread. Which in comparison to the prices currently on offer provides a firm market, refreshingly.

Likewise with the data presented from the Patriots side of the market, -47.0 total points seems to be the standout value from within this game. In accordance with the data generated from road teams possessing implied probabilities of 33.22% or less, indicate 57.15% of games have resulted in -47.0 total points. Therefore, producing an overall probability of 55.85% or odds of 1.79.NFL Data Analysis

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears – Sunday at 18:00

The 1-4 Chicago Bears come in this game with an implied probability of 57.47%, which situates them within in a filter of home teams possessing implied probabilities of between 52.63% and 66.22%. Consequently, a filter that has been expensive to follow for home teams this season with only 44.44% of teams obtaining the victory. A very early indication that the 1-3 Jacksonville Jaguars may provide value at 2.28. Chicago have averaged only 17.00 points per game offensively, this season. The average points produced offensively from home teams situated within the same filter as Chicago: 25.59.

Consequently with the current handicap line being +2.5/-2.5, home teams have only covered the -2.5 handicap in 44.44% of games  fabricating another positive for Jacksonville. The Bears have allowed an average of 25.20 points per game, defensively this season. In addition, the average points allowed from home teams situated within the same filter as Chicago: 23.77.

Based upon the data obtained from this season, +46.0 appears to be the side that provides the greater upswing. The percentage generated for +46.0 total points, from games which included a home team with an implied probability between 52.63% and 66.22% is 62.96% or odds of 1.59. Therefore with 1.97 currently available, a substantial amount of value is available from the data extracted from Chicago’s current price.

Correspondingly with the market’s perception on Chicago, the implied probability currently attached with Jacksonville is 43.85%. Therefore, establishing Jacksonville within the filter of roads teams possessing implied probabilities of between 40.00% and 45.24%. The concept of a home struggle is evident within both filters, that of Chicago and Jacksonville. The filter in which Jacksonville are based, has provided 60.00% of travelling teams obtaining victory. An outstanding performance, when considering the average odds that have been generated are 2.35. By obtaining the two sources of data for each team and producing an average occurrence rate, a stable probability can then be recycled upon the market to obtain value points. Therefore by producing an average occurrence rate for Jacksonville, historical data suggests the Jaguars possess a 57.78% probability of obtaining victory.

Unquestionably home struggles are evident, which in addition filters through to the handicap market. Although the handicap line currently being offered isn’t a substantial one, the struggle enforced is still apparent. Consequently only 40.00% of the games situated within the filter in place, have resulted in the home favourite covering the -2.5 spread. Integrating the two individual sources, produces a probability of 42.22% or odds of 2.36. Therefore identifying the implied probability of 51.28% as over inflated. Implementing the data presented, demonstrates that value can be obtained by siding with Jacksonville on both the handicap and moneyline.

Not only are the home struggles affecting both the handicap and moneyline markets, but the overs appear to be thriving. The reasoning behind this analogy, maybe in accordance with the pressure imposed on home teams. Therefore leading to a greater percentage of teams chasing the game, equating to a greater number of points being obtained. Analysing the data which has been manufactured, applies 60.00% of games resulted in +46.0 points.NFL Data Analysis

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @gscurftrader.

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