October 6, 2016

NFL Data Analysis: Week 5 – Thursday 6th October by @gscurftrader

Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions – Sunday at 18:00

The market’s current perception on the Detroit Lions is that of home team possessing a probability of between 40.00% and 45.24%. Analysing how previous home teams have performed this season in the current market conditions, will produce a stable guide into how this game may conclude.

Home wins from implied probabilities of between 40.00% and 45.24% have been prolific this season with 80.00% of games within these filters ending with a home victory. Furthermore, the home team have covered the current handicap line of +3.5 in 80.00% of games thus far.

Although the Detroit Lions are currently 1-3 and 4th in the NFC North, the average points scored from home teams with similar market conditions to the Detroit Lions is 23.20 points. Consequently, that average is within the region of the average points produced by the Detroit Lions this season which is 23.75 points

The current total points spread available is that of 46 points, which by analysing the data generated from home teams this season under the filters in place suggest that only 20.00% of those games have resulted in the current spread being covered. The Lions have been dogs in two of their four games this season with odds of 2.26 v Indianapolis which resulted in a 39-35 win and odds of 3.65 v Green Bay which resulted in a 34-27 loss.

After analysing the market’s perception attached to the Lions, it is only fitting to extract data from that of the perception currently attached to the 4-0 Philadelphia Eagles. Therefore, by observing the current filter in which Philadelphia are situated which is that of road teams with implied probabilities of between 52.63% and 66.22% further data can be presented into the equation.

Conveniently, parallel to what the data extracted from the implied probability attached to the Detroit Lions suggested. The data extracted from the Philadelphia Eagles implied probability also suggests that road favourites have struggled this season, especially those within the parameters of 52.63% and 66.22%. Hence, why a performance rating of only 46.67% or odds of 2.14 can be produced. In addition, the average points scored by road favourites with implied probabilities of between 52.63% and 66.22% is only 20.95 points. Which in comparison to the average generated for the Detroit Lions would indicate a 23-21 win for Matthew Stafford and Jim Caldwell.

However, based upon the data generated from these early season games this is how market data perceives the Moneyline, Handicap and Total Points markets;NFL Data Market Analysis - Chart 2

Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins – Sunday at 18:00

Analysing the market’s perception and the implied probability attached with the Miami Dolphins, indicates a probability which is naturally associated with the handicap lines. Often when the public observe a heavy home favourite their first instinct is to withdraw the thought of becoming involved due to the insufficient price. However, determining whether the price is “insufficient” or not can be established by analysing how previous teams have performed under the same market conditions, presenting a stable guide in which to view this AFC match-up.

This season home teams with implied probabilities of between 52.63% and 66.22% have resulted in only 47.83% of home teams obtaining a victory. Which equates to odds of 2.09, somewhat off the 1.57 currently on offer for Miami. The Dolphins have been heavy favourites in only one of their opening four games, which was a home game against Cleveland resulting in a 30-24 victory. Adam Gase and co were handed a brutal opening schedule, with road games at Seattle, New England and Cincinnati hence the 1-3 record.

Home teams with implied probabilities of between 52.63% and 66.22% have managed to cover the -3.5 handicap in 43.48% of games so far this season. Although, the handicap line for home favourites maybe off to a gloomy start. The total points lines have been a tremendous earner for those following, with 65.22% of games resulting in over 44.5 total points being obtained.

Analysing the average points generated from home teams within the filters in which Miami are situated allows a guideline into what can be expected. Therefore, the average points generated from home teams under the current market conditions would be 26.97 resulting in  an increase of around nine points in comparison to Miami’s seasonal average of 17.75.

Tennessee are currently situated within a filter, with roads team possessing a probability of between 33.33% and 39.84%. Which given the data on hand suggests that Miami may be overvalued, leading to a bottom end price. Only 54.55% of home teams have managed to obtain a victory over the travelling dog in the current market conditions.

Consequently, with home teams struggling to put away teams with implied probabilities similar to the Titans. The travelling dog has covered the current handicap line in 63.64% of games this season, indicating that this may be closer than the market suggests. The average points generated from the travelling team this season has been 23.70, only 3.27 points off the average generated for Miami. Implementing these averages would generate a 27-24 victory for the Dolphins taking them to 2-3.NFL Data & Market Analysis - Chart 2Prices correct at time of writing.

By @gscurftrader.

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