October 22, 2016

NFL Data Analysis: Week 7 – Sunday 23rd October by @gscurftrader

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins – Sunday at 18:00

Observing the situation which has developed within the moneyline market, allows an oversight to determine how this game may conclude. Analysing how teams have performed this year, when attached with the market conditions which have arisen in this game have produced a significant performance rating from the host team. In fact, only one team through the opening six weeks have suffered a defeat, when attached with an implied probability of between 40.00% and 45.24%. That team being the Tennessee Titans, when they hosted the Minnesota Vikings in game week one. The current price available on Miami appears to be the first settled price of the season for the Dolphins, with extremes on both sides of scale being encountered. The Dolphins have been priced at; 5.50, 3.45, 1.26, 4.40, 1.63 and 4.10 with their two wins coming against the winless Cleveland Browns and a shocking, but convincing win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Taking into consideration the evidence presented in favour of the Dolphins, this data circulates into the handicap market. Therefore, providing a glimpse of beneficial positions to obtain. Correspondingly with the current handicap line being -/+2.5, home teams with implied probabilities of between 40.00% and 45.24% have maintained the +2.5 handicap in 87.50% of games this season. As a result generating a significant probability in favour of Miami, which in comparison with the market’s perception of 49.50% seems too good to be true.

An intriguing market within this AFC East match-up is that of the Over/Under market, which is currently set at +/-43.5 total points. Utilising the Dolphins current price to generate an outlook on the Over/Under market, produces a probability of 62.50% in favour of -43.5 total points. Consequently, highlighting an additional position which may prove beneficial against the price being offered.

Investigating the price attached with Buffalo, situates them with travelling teams possessing an implied probability of between 52.63% and 66.22%. Subsequently, maintaining the evidence in favour of Miami. The filter in which the Bills are situated has resulted in home team’s obtaining victory in 59.09% of games or equating to odds of 1.69. Therefore by combining the two sources of data, this would generate a probability of 73.29% or odds of 1.36 for the Miami Dolphins. Creating the comparison between the market’s perception and what data has implemented, manufactures a significant amount of value. Therefore, producing a lucrative position on the moneyline market, as Miami possess the ability to emulate the likes of; San Francisco, Atlanta, Chicago and others.

Exploiting the implied probability attached with Buffalo, allows further analysis to connect with earlier presented data to produce a stable outlook on the handicap market. Accordingly by extracting data from the filter in which Buffalo are located, creates a probability for Miami covering the +2.5 handicap in 59.09% of games. Therefore leading to an overall probability identical to one awarded to Miami on the moneyline market.

In addition to the data extracted from Miami’s market situation, for the Over/Under market. Further data can be extracted from Buffalo to generate a more in-depth analysis of the Over/Under market, assisting bettors to produce a more established approach. For this reason an overall probability of 60.79% can be produced in favour of -43.5 total points. Subsequently displaying another position which outweighs the market’s perception, producing an additional valued location.nfl1

Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions – Sunday at 18:00

Examining the market’s current perception on the Detroit Lions locates them within the filter of home teams possessing an implied probability of between 52.63% and 66.22%. Consequently handing the initiative to Washington, as only 48.39% of home teams within these parameters have obtained victory. Equating to odds of 2.07 which in comparison with the prices currently being offered, does not provide an equitable trade. The 3-3 Detroit Lions have commenced their six games this season at odds of; 2.26, 1.43, 3.65, 1.66, 2.66 and 1.65. Detroit are 2-1 at Ford Field this season with their only defeat coming in a 16-15 loss against Tennessee, that game consequently being Detroit’s shortest pre-game price this season.

Similar to Miami with data suggesting false perception on the moneyline market, that same false perception is evident within the handicap market. Although the handicap line is not a substantial one, historical data is implementing a probability that Detriot have a 48.39% probability of covering the -1.5 spread. Consequently this is not in accordance with the current market perception, as an implied probability of 51.28% is evident. Therefore, assigning early evidence of value in favour of Washington in both the moneyline and handicap markets.

Analysing the Over/Under market through the implied probability attached with Detroit, allows a unique view into the most beneficial stance available in the market. Prior to observing the market’s perception, I analysed the data from within Detroit’s filter and made the assumption that the line would be +/-48.5 total points. As 51.61% of games had resulted in +48.5 total points, with a substantial drop off to 41.94% for +50.5 total points. Surprisingly, the line on offer is +/-50.0 total points, which provides a valuable angle for -50.0 total points if you’re looking to become involved with this market.

Studying the data generated from Washington’s current price indicates further evidence, in the theory of the Redskins possessing the most lucrative entry point. Travelling teams situated within the filter of teams possessing an implied probability of between 45.45% and 49.75% have resulted in a performance rating of 50.00%. Therefore by combining the two sources presented, this establishes an overall probability of 50.80%. Somewhat of an upgrade in comparison to the markets perception of 47.61% on Washington.

Making the most of Washington’s implied probability, additional data can be extracted. Data which can recycled upon the handicap market, and utilized by discovering the most beneficial entry point. Identical, with the data extracted from Detroit’s price the probability of Washington maintaining the +1.5 handicap is 50.00%. However, by combining the two origins the true probability of Washington covering the +1.5 spread is identical to the probability attached with the moneyline; 50.80%.Prices correct at time of writing.nfl2

By @gscurftrader.

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