Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Raymond James Stadium at 18:00

Analysing the market’s current perception indicates an implied probability of 65.78% being attached with the 8-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As a result, situating Dirk Koetter and staff within the parameters of host teams possessing an implied probability of between 52.73% and 66.22%. Hence, 60.00% of games situated within the parameters in use have resulted in a host victory. Therefore, equating to odds of 1.67 and indicating little in the way of value being attached with Tampa Bay at this early stage. Observing the market’s perception of Tampa Bay throughout the season, indicates an average implied probability of 43.10% at the Raymond James stadium this season. The market has situated Tampa Bay in identical conditions on two other occasions this season; 62.50% in Week 3 v Los Angeles Rams in a 37-32 loss and 53.76% in Week 14 v New Orleans Saints in a 16-11 victory. Although the Buccaneers have been situated within these parameters twice previously, the current perception attached with them is their most significant of the season.

Following on, observing the current perception on the total points market indicates an implied probability of 44.44% being attached with the +48.5 line. Hence, by analysing the data extracted from concluded games that have been situated identically indicates 48.00% of previous games have resulted in +48.5 total points occurring. As a result, generating an early indication that value may well be apparent.

Analysing the data which has been extracted to recycle through the handicap market, indicates only 48.00% of host teams that have possessed an implied probability of between 52.73% and 66.22% have been able to cover the -4.0 handicap spread. Which in turn, is what the market currently perceives as an element with an implied probability of 51.28%. For this reason, overestimating Tampa Bay’s ability to cover the current spread. As a result, potentially leaving a beneficial entry point on the Panthers +4.0. Hence, 52.00% of travelling teams have been able to maintain the +4.0 handicap. Therefore, equating to odds of 1.92 and producing a very small amount of value.

In cooperation, with the market’s perception of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. An implied probability of 34.96% is evident on the 6-9 Carolina Panthers. As a result, situating Ron Rivera and staff within the parameters of travelling teams possessing an implied probability of between 33.33% and 39.84%. Hence, 42.50% of travelling teams that have been situated within the parameters in use have obtained victory. Therefore, by combining both extracts of data an overall probability of 39.91 can be attached with the Panthers. For this reason, with the market currently presenting an entry point of 34.96% or odds of 2.86 significant value can be obtained by having the Carolina Panthers on side. The market has attached Cam Newton and company with identical market conditions on the road in only one other game this season, which was in Week 12 in a 35-32 loss at the Oakland Raiders.

Given the data already presented on the total points market, from the Tampa Bay side. A similar streak is evident from the data situated within the parameters in which Carolina are positioned. Given that the market has attached an implied probability of 44.44% to +48.5 total points, data indicates 52.50% of games situated within the parameters of travelling teams possessing an implied probability of between 33.33% and 39.84% have resulted in +48.5 total points occurring. As a result, of combining both sources of data and overall probability of 50.25% can be attached with +48.5 total points. Therefore, generating a beneficial entry point with the market currently offering 2.25.

Taking into consideration, the underestimated view on the Carolina Panthers. An element of reflection can be seen on the handicap line. Given that the market has attached an implied probability of 52.35% on Carolina maintaining the +4.0 line. A long term beneficial entry point appears to be evident, as 55.00% of travelling teams have been able to maintain the current handicap line of +4.0. Therefore, by combining the two individual extracts of data an overall probability of 53.50% can be attached with Carolina maintaining the current handicap line.

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By @gscurftrader.

Prices correct at time of writing.

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