Stadio San Paolo – Thursday 18th December at 20:00 live on BT Sport
Parma are having a torrid time of it this season, sitting bottom of Serie A with just 6 points from their first 15 games after a 1 point deduction for financial irregularities. Roberto Donadoni has only managed 2 wins all season and has the worst defence in the league, conceding 34 times already. Parma have conceded in every away game this season leaking an average of 2.57 goals per game, picking up just 1 win in 7.
Napoli are one of the most offensive teams in the league, failing to score for the first time in 12 matches last weekend against AC Milan. They average an impressive 2.57 goals per home match but do have some defensive frailties, conceding at least once in 86% of their matches at Stadio San Paolo. Champions League qualification is what they will be aiming for now as they sit 12 points behind the leaders, but will need to improve in order to make that a possibility.
On paper, Napoli should win this one and comfortably, Napoli -1.5 @ 1.95 on the Asian Handicap has to be considered. But, with these teams, home scoring and away defensive records, we have to expect goals. With that in mind, Over 3.5 goals @ 2.62 could be a great value bet.