Napoli v Lazio – Stadio San Paolo at 19:45 BT Sport 1
Napoli host Lazio this Sunday at the Stadio San Paolo in a showdown for the third and final Serie A place in next years Champions League. It’s gone down to the wire and promises to be an enthralling encounter between 2 Italian heavyweights and one Asian Handicap betting punters can get their teeth in to.
Lazio’s defeat at home to Roma last Monday means Napoli can nick third place if they win due to their head to head record over Lazio. If Partenopi are successful, it will be a triumphant farewell for manager Rafa Benitez after he confirmed he’ll depart the club in the summer and is expected to fill Carlo Ancelotti’s shoes at Real Madrid.
Both teams have been struggling for form of late but Benitez, with home advantage will be looking to leave the club on a high.
Things could have been very different for Napoli if they managed to overcome Ukrainians Dnipro in the Europa League semi final. The UEL winners now get a direct route into the Champions League group stages, but their failure in Europe meant they have to do it the hard way.
It’s not been a great end of the season for Rafa, winning just 2 of his last 7 matches in all competitions. They started 2015 well, winning 5 out of 6 league games, their only defeat to Champions Juve. Then they came unstuck. They didn’t win a match in March and chalked up just 2 points from a possible 15, that will be forgotten with a win in Sunday though.
It’s not been much better in Rome for Lazio, winning g just 2 matches in their last 8 outings, including a defeat in the Coppa Italia final to Juventus.
After winning 8 games I the spin from mid-February to the middle of April, the Biancocelesti have stumbled at the business end of the season.
They have take a couple of big psychological blows in their last 2 matches. After taking the lead in the final, they went on to lose after extra time. Then on Monday, after clawing it back to 1-1, they went on to lose the match, confidence will be low.
Napoli have not lost in their last 5 meetings with Gonzalo Higuian’s goal the difference last time out. Lazio have also not won at the Stadio San Paolo in their last 5 visits and Napoli boast and unbeaten record at home since January.
However, Lazio have earned more points than any other team in the Serie A away from home In the second half of the season.
With the difference of Champions League or Europa League at stake, this promises to be a match you will not want to miss.
Both sides aren’t going into the match with any real from but I think due to their head to head record and dominance at home, the value has to be with Napoli.
The 2.15 available on Napoli is a bit on the big side for me but being a little bit more cautious I’m going to back then -0.25 on the Asian Handicap market.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Napoli -0.25 @ 1.87
Prices correct at time of writing.
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