Monaco v Juventus – Stade Louis II at 19:45 live on Sky Sports 5
This match is nicely poised after Juventus won 1-0 in Turin in the 1st leg last week. Monaco were unable to get an away goal, but their strong home defensive record, both domestically and in the Champions League, gives them a real chance of upsetting the odds and making it through to the Semi Finals.
The Italians are favourites to win the match and are as short as 1.11 to qualify, but we shouldn’t underestimate the team from Monte Carlo as many found out in the previous round when they knocked out Arsenal. It is still all to play for at the Stade Louis II stadium and a match that Asian Handicap betting punters can get stuck into.
Monaco have certainly been the surprise package in the Champions League this year and backing against them would’ve proved costly. They had an impressive group phase, winning it by a point, losing only 1 game and conceding only once in the 6 matches.
The biggest shock of the last 16 was the French sides 3-1 win at the Emirates which was enough to see them through despite losing at home in the second leg 2-0. Conceding just 4 times in their 8 UCL matches is still a very impressive statistic.
Their home win record is not great though, both domestically and in Europe, winning just 6 of their 17 Ligue 1 matches and 2 of their 4 UCL games at Stade Louis II. They have only lost 3 times in all 21 games though and conceded an average of just 0.52 goals a game.
Juventus are cruising to another Serie A title, a fourth in a row, and are now 15 points clear of Lazio and Roma after beating I Biancocelesti last weekend 2-0. Juve were impressive in the previous round, beating Dortmund 2-1 at home and 3-0 away. The Old Lady did lose twice away from home in the group stages however to Atl Madrid and Olympiakos but have only lost twice in 15 domestic games on the road.
Juve have an equally good defensive record as Monaco, conceding just 10 goals in their 19 UCL and Serie A away matches this season.
A very tight match is expected but both teams will be looking to score. Monaco need a goal to stay in the tie so will have to change the way they set up at home and Juve will be looking to score, meaning Monaco will need a minimum of 3 to stand a chance of qualifying.
It will be a very tactical game and one that I think Juventus can win. Monaco’s home record just doesn’t warrant backing them +0.25 on the Asian Handicap market at 1.96. The best they can hope for would be draw which won’t see them through so will be pushing for goals. This is not their style and may well leave them vulnerable.
Asian Handicap Recommendation: Juventus -0.5 @ 2.4
Prices correct at time of writing.
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