Orlando City FC v New England Revolution
Orlando have now lost a massive 12 of their last 13 MLS matches but at least recent signs have been more positive in terms of performance. They were unlucky to go down 0-2 at home vs New York City FC last week and then blew 2-1 and 3-2 leads away at the Galaxy last week. Even just before that they came close to getting something facing Columbus Crew. The Florida outfit might be losing a lot of games recently but they still aren’t out of the playoff picture yet. A quick return to winning ways is now required though otherwise, this will be a ship that is completely sunk to the bottom of the ocean. Orlando are priced as -0.5 Asian Handicap favourites around the 2.15 mark for this match – probably too short to consider backing them. You can’t trust a team at such short odds when they’ve lost 12 out of 13 affairs.
The Revolution come here on the back of their own losing streak which is currently three games in a row. Of course, that pales into significance when compared to Orlando but Brad Friedel’s men seem to have hit the buffers following what was a decent unbeaten run which put them in playoff contention. The Revs remain in possession of sixth place but someone like Philly are lurking close behind. Should Orlando win this match then they would go just three points behind New England so it’s a big game when you consider the whole overall playoff picture. Team news is quite favourable for both with only long-term casualties ruled out of the fixture.
I actually have a feeling that Orlando will win this game but there is no way I can be brave (or stupid enough!) to back them at around 2.15. This offers no value on a team that regularly finds ways to cock up matches. Over 3 definitely seems like the best bet. Orlando matches are ridiculously full of goals left right and centre. Only 2 of their last 10 games have ended with less 2.5 goals in them, and on both of those occasions they were freak 0-2s which should’ve contained more. This feels like a natural over sort of affair in which neither team defends well but a lot of chances should be created. Over 3 goals us currently priced around the 1.85 mark which seems generous enough to me, so I’m happy to strike.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 3.00 goals at 1.850
Houston Dynamo v Sporting Kansas City
Both teams have drifted out of form recently with each only winning 2 of their last 10 games. Most of the problems for Houston during this run have been away from home, although Philly did upset them at this stadium a couple of weeks ago (1-3). Houston have always missed a lot of chances in 2018 but they got away with it at the start of the season. Now it seems like crucial opportunities aren’t being taken and it’s often costing them. For example, when they were 1-0 up vs the Union there were numerous big occasions to extend their lead, and ultimately Wilmer Cabrera’s men got bitten in the ass. Only long-term injuries are affecting the Dynamo right now. Key right winger Alberth Elis has to be careful because he’s one yellow card away from a suspension.
Perhaps the plight of SKC has been more surprising. This is a team that looked so good in the first third of the season but 4 losses in 5 games have set them back badly. In a similar way to Houston, the big problem has been away from home but they come into this one on the back of a home defeat vs Dallas (2-3). Sporting have conceded way too many goals this season and the manager has been more willing to attack in 2018. On the flip side, goalscoring has been easier for SKC and you always feel like they are carrying a threat. Peter Vermes’ men have scored exactly two goals in all of their last four games, yet only managed to pick up one point out of these fixtures. The return from injury of key attacking playmaker Felipe Gutierrez can surely only help them. He should be able to last 90 mins here for the first time since April. However, fellow midfielder Roger Espinoza is suspended.
Houston find themselves Asian Handicap favourites around the 2.10 mark for this match. Whether or not they’ll win I’m not sure. The Dynamo deserve to be favoured but I wouldn’t bank on them winning due to the sheer nature of this team conceding goals too often. Neither defense can be trusted which is why I like over 2.75 goals for this match. The only reason we can get this line instead of the standard over 3 in MLS is because of SKC’s historical reputation of being defensive and low scoring. Forget that this year though because those tactics have been thrown out of the window. Houston have a knack of sucking teams into shootouts anyway. These two teams have met twice in the last 6 weeks in the league and cup, the ultimate scorelines were 3-2 and 4-2 with one victory a piece. I’m confident in goals for this match and with the line being generous, it’s a no-brainer selection.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.75 goals at 1.880
Preview by: @meatmansoccer.